Why does Elon Musk emphasize avoiding reliance on "analogical reasoning"?

Simply put, relying on "analogical reasoning" is like "copying homework."

Think about how we usually solve problems. Most of the time, we observe how others do things, and then we follow suit, perhaps making minor adjustments to the details. For instance, if you want to open a restaurant, you might visit successful ones, study their decor, menu, and pricing – that's analogical reasoning.

The advantage of doing this is that it's convenient, safe, and less prone to major mistakes, because you're following a path that others have already validated.

However, Elon Musk believes the fatal flaw of this approach is: you can never create anything truly disruptive. At best, you can only create a "slightly better" copy, because you've also copied their thought framework and limitations. You're merely making minor improvements, not genuine innovation.

In contrast, the "first principles" thinking advocated by Musk is exactly the opposite. It doesn't ask "How have others done it?", but rather "What is the essence of this thing?" and "What are the most fundamental facts we can be certain of?"

To give an example from his own experience: Back then, everyone thought battery packs were extremely expensive and would remain so for a long time. This was an "analogical" conclusion based on the market price of batteries at the time.

But Musk used first principles to think:

1. What is a battery pack made of? He broke down the battery to its most fundamental material level: carbon, nickel, cobalt, aluminum, steel, etc.
2. What are the prices of these raw materials on the open market (e.g., the London Metal Exchange)?
3. He added up the prices of these raw materials and found that the cost was far lower than that of a finished battery pack on the market at the time.

The conclusion was clear: Since the raw material cost was so low, the huge price difference must stem from inefficiencies in the manufacturing process. So, instead of buying expensive off-the-shelf batteries, he decided to buy raw materials and build a factory to produce them himself, ultimately drastically reducing costs.

It was the same with rocket manufacturing. Everyone else was making single-use rockets. He analyzed that the fuel cost of a rocket was actually a tiny fraction of the total cost; the rocket body itself was the truly expensive part. So why couldn't it be refueled and reused like an airplane? Thus, the reusable Falcon rockets were born.

Therefore, Musk emphasizes avoiding reliance on analogy because: Analogy makes you navigate on someone else's map, while first principles allow you to draw an entirely new map yourself.

The former makes you an excellent follower, while only the latter can make you a rule-changer. For someone like him, who aims to do "world-changing" things, merely "copying homework" is far from enough.