Why did Naval mention 'learning to judge trends'?

Okay, let's talk about Naval's point. This is actually a very core, critical part of his philosophy.

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Why does Naval talk about "Learning How to Judge a Trend"?

Hey, that's a really great question. If you've heard or read any of Naval's content, you'll notice he constantly emphasizes "leverage" and "long-term thinking". And "judging trends" is precisely the most powerful tool for combining these two.

Let me try to explain with a more everyday analogy:

Imagine you're surfing at the beach.

• Your personal abilities (like your skills, knowledge, effort level) are your surfing skills.
• The trend of the times (like the internet, AI, new energy) is a massive wave.

Now, the situation becomes clear:

1. A surfing master, stuck in a calm bay with almost no waves, won't get very far even with their great technique.
2. An average person with decent skills, if they time it right and paddle out to catch a forming giant wave, can be carried incredibly far by that wave – possibly further than the master stuck in the calm bay.

Naval's "learning how to judge a trend" is essentially teaching you how to find that "giant wave" that will carry you into the distance.

Below, I'll break it down into a few points to make it clearer.

1. The Trend is the Greatest "Leverage"

Naval always says to pursue leverage. What's leverage? It's using a small amount of effort to get tenfold, a hundredfold, or even ten thousandfold returns. He mentions leverage like code, media, and capital.

But actually, the greatest leverage is the trend itself.

If you chose to dive into mobile internet in 2010, developing apps, you were riding the wave. Your effort would be amplified by the era. A small app you made could be used by millions. But if, at the same point in time, you chose to open a DVD rental store, no matter how hard you worked or how good your service was, you were destined to be obsolete.

Your hard work and intelligence, placed within a rising trend, yield exponential returns; placed in a declining trend, you might not even recoup your investment. Judging trends helps you choose where to invest your time and energy for the highest possible return on investment.

2. Choosing the Right "Playing Field" Matters More Than Hard Work

Many people believe "hard work equals success," but Naval argues that what game you play is more important than how well you play it.

• What game you play -> You choose which field, which industry to operate in. (This is judging trends)
• How you play the game -> How hard and smart you work within that field. (This is personal ability)

If you were the world's most skilled carriage driver 100 years ago, your craftsmanship would be worth zero the moment automobiles were invented. It's not that you didn't work hard; it's that your chosen "playing field" became obsolete.

Learning to judge trends gives you the ability to choose a "playing field that will grow larger in the future." In such a field, even if you're not the fastest runner, as long as you keep moving, you'll benefit from the overall expansion of that space.

3. Distinguish Between "Trends" and "Short-Lived Fads"

This point is crucial. When Naval emphasizes "judging trends," he's not telling you to chase every new fad – rushing into the metaverse because it's hot today, or jumping on crypto trading because Web3 is trendy tomorrow. Those are "fads," not "trends."

• Trend: A long-term, fundamental change based on underlying technological, societal, or cultural logic. It usually happens slowly but has profound, lasting impact. Examples: the rise of the Internet, globalization, the application of AI. These are decades-long waves.
• Fad: A short-term, superficial, emotionally-driven craze. It comes fast and burns out quickly. Examples: a particular viral product, a challenge that spreads like wildfire.

The power of "judgment" lies right here. You need to see through the surface noise and ask: Does this solve a fundamental problem, or is it just an interesting toy with little real utility? Can it last 10, 20 years?

Investing your time and life into a genuine trend allows you to reap compound growth; wasting your time chasing various fads means you're just spinning your wheels.

To summarize

So, the reason Naval places such high importance on the skill of "judging trends" is that:

It determines the multiplier effect on your efforts. It helps you choose a large, thriving pond, rather than exhausting yourself in a puddle that's about to dry up.

This is a form of macro wisdom, strategic thinking. It requires elevating your focus from "What should I do today?" to "Where is the world heading over the next decade, and where should I position myself?"

It's a "sense" that takes long-term reading, thinking, and practice to cultivate. But once you grasp it, the way you see the world and its opportunities will fundamentally change.