Will Bitcoin's value dissipate like the 'Tulip Mania'?

Haha, this question can be called the "question of the century" in the crypto world, brought up for discussion repeatedly with every major surge and crash. I've been involved for a few years and have also been pondering this issue, so let me share my thoughts with you.

First, let's briefly talk about what the "Tulip Mania" was. Hundreds of years ago in the Netherlands, rare tulip bulbs were speculated to astronomical prices, with a single bulb costing as much as a mansion. But essentially, it was just a flower, capable of growing beautiful blooms, and nothing else. Eventually, people suddenly realized, "Why am I spending so much money on this?" As a result, no one was left to buy, the price plummeted, and it ultimately became worthless.

So, will Bitcoin go the same way? We can look at it from two perspectives:

On one hand, there's a valid argument that it resembles the Tulip Mania:

1. Huge Speculative Component: This is where the resemblance is strongest. How many people who buy Bitcoin actually use it to purchase goods? Very few. The vast majority buy it, betting that it will be worth more in the future, then sell it to the next person to profit from the price difference. This logic is identical to the tulip speculation, both relying on the idea that "there's always a greater fool" who will pay a higher price.
2. Extreme Price Volatility: Its price can fluctuate by 20% in a single day, or multiply several times/drop by 80% within a year. This rollercoaster-like market behavior doesn't resemble a normal asset or currency at all; it's more like an "ECG" of a speculative commodity. This instability is a key characteristic of a bubble.
3. Value Difficult to Quantify: For a company's stock, you can at least estimate its value based on its profitability and market share. But what about Bitcoin? It doesn't generate profit, nor does it have financial reports. Its value depends entirely on people's "consensus" – meaning, whatever people believe it's worth, that's what it's worth. Once this belief collapses, the price will naturally plummet.

However, on the other hand, it has fundamental differences from tulips:

1. Revolutionary Underlying Technology: Behind tulips was just soil, but behind Bitcoin is "blockchain." You might not understand this term, and that's okay. You just need to know that it's a brand-new, decentralized ledger technology. It ensures that Bitcoin cannot be arbitrarily inflated or counterfeited by anyone, and transaction records are public, transparent, and immutable. This is something with real technological value, much like internet technology. Tulips certainly didn't have this kind of "black tech" backing them.
2. Absolute Scarcity: While tulips were rare, given suitable soil and time, they could theoretically be grown indefinitely. But from the day Bitcoin was designed, its total supply was hardcoded – there will only ever be 21 million. This absolute scarcity gives it properties similar to gold, which is why many call it "digital gold." Gold itself doesn't have much practical use (industrial demand is very low), but because it's rare and stable, it has been a symbol of value for thousands of years.
3. Established Global Network and Ecosystem: The Tulip Mania only lasted a few years. Bitcoin, however, has existed for over a decade, and a massive global industry has been built around it, including exchanges, mining farms, wallet services, investment institutions, and more. Some countries have even adopted it as legal tender. It has become deeply embedded in a part of the global financial system. To make it completely worthless would be akin to destroying a global network that has been operating for over a decade, which would be extremely difficult.

Therefore, my conclusion is:

Bitcoin's price indeed contains a huge bubble component. This part of the bubble could burst at any time due to market sentiment, policy crackdowns, or other reasons, leading to price crashes of 70%, 80%, or even more, which has happened multiple times in the past.

However, to say that its value will completely dissipate and go to zero like tulips, I personally believe the possibility is extremely small.

Because it's not just a speculative symbol; it's backed by technology, mathematical scarcity, and an already established global network. You can think of it like the "dot-com bubble" era. Many internet companies (like pets.com) went bankrupt then, and the bubble burst, but the internet technology itself didn't disappear. Instead, it profoundly changed the world and gave birth to giants like Amazon and Google.

Bitcoin might be similar. Its price bubble may burst repeatedly, and many opportunistic "altcoins" might go to zero, but Bitcoin and the blockchain technology it represents, as a new asset class and technological paradigm, are very likely to continue to exist.

So, the wisest attitude towards it might be: acknowledge its high risk and speculative nature, and don't bet your entire fortune on it; but at the same time, don't simply dismiss it as a worthless "digital tulip," as it might indeed represent a certain future. Investing in it is like a high-risk adventure – you might discover treasure, or you might lose everything.