What stage does Bitcoin represent in the history of monetary evolution?

This is a particularly interesting question. I think if we view the evolution of money as the history of transportation development, then Bitcoin is currently in the stage where "the first automobile has just been invented."

Let me walk you through this idea:

1. The Major Stages in the Evolution of Money

• Barter Era (Before even horse carriages existed): I want to trade my sheep for your grain. But you might not want sheep, which makes things very difficult. Extremely inefficient.
• Commodity Money Era (When standardized horse carriages began to appear): People discovered that items like shells, salt, and feathers were rare, attractive, and easy to carry, so they used them as intermediaries. I'd first exchange my sheep for shells, then use the shells to get your grain, which was much more convenient. Later, gold and silver became the kings of this era due to their rarity, stability, and divisibility.
• Metallic Weighing/Coinage Era (Standardized horse carriages, mass production): Turning gold and silver into coins of uniform size and weight made transactions even easier, eliminating the need to carry a scale every time.
• Paper Money Era (The invention of 'receipts'): Carrying piles of gold and silver every day became too heavy. So, banks or governments said, "You deposit your gold with me, and I'll give you a note. You can use this note as if it were gold, and you can exchange it back anytime." This was the earliest form of paper money, backed by gold.
• Credit Money Era (Where we are now, with cars everywhere): Later, governments found it too cumbersome to always link money to gold, so they simply delinked it. The value of the money we use (like RMB or USD) doesn't come from gold, but from our trust in the government. Whatever value the government assigns to it, we believe it holds that value. The money we use daily now is all credit money.

2. The Emergence of Bitcoin, a 'New Species'

Just as everyone had grown accustomed to the 'automobiles' (credit money) running everywhere, Bitcoin suddenly appeared. It's not a better automobile; it's more like a "privately manufactured flying machine."

It is completely different from all previous forms of money:

• It has no 'driver': There's no government or bank behind it. It's maintained by a set of open and transparent mathematical algorithms and countless computers distributed globally. It's like a public ledger where everyone records transactions together, and no one can cheat.
• It's inherently 'limited edition': Its total supply is hardcoded at 21 million, and no one can issue more. This stands in stark contrast to governments' ability to 'print money.'
• It can 'teleport': It can be transferred quickly across the globe, without national borders, and with relatively fixed transaction fees.

So, what stage is Bitcoin in now?

It is currently in a very early, controversial, and uncertain "pioneering and experimental" phase.

• Functionally, it's like a 'concept car': It demonstrates a brand new possibility to the world – that money doesn't have to be issued by a government. However, it still has many issues. For example, its price fluctuates too wildly; today it might buy a Tesla, but tomorrow it might only be enough for a tire, making it difficult to use for daily purchases. Transaction speed and high fees (during network congestion) also limit its use for small payments.
• Perceptually, it's like a 'rich person's toy' or a 'geek's experiment': Most ordinary people don't understand it or use it. More often, it's treated as a high-risk investment, similar to "digital gold," used for storing value and speculation, rather than as everyday "money."
• In terms of status, it's like a 'niche challenger': It's like the automobile when it first appeared, seeming so out of place in the face of the powerful horse carriage system. Its speed is unstable, it requires specific "fuel" (electricity and network), its "roads" (exchanges and wallets) are underdeveloped, and it's often suppressed or warned against by the "horse carriage association" (governments and banks worldwide).

In summary:

Bitcoin is not an optimized upgrade of the existing monetary system, but rather an attempt at a disruptive paradigm shift. In the history of monetary evolution, it has opened up a completely new, decentralized technological path.

Currently, it is far from a mature stage where it could replace existing currencies. It's more like an "early prototype" constantly being tested, clashing, and evolving in laboratories and on the fringes of society. We are merely witnessing the beginning of this grand experiment, and no one can say for sure where it will ultimately fly – to the stars and oceans, or if it will be a fleeting phenomenon.