What do you think could be the trigger for the next global financial crisis?

Okay, regarding what might trigger the next financial crisis, I'll share some of my thoughts, trying to keep it easy to understand.

I think it's easier to grasp if we imagine the global economy as a human body. Sometimes, minor ailments don't immediately make you sick, but they slowly weaken your immunity until a small cold virus can knock you down. The current global economy is somewhat like this "weakened" body, with some "underlying conditions," and the trigger is that "cold virus."

Here are a few "underlying conditions" or potential triggers that I believe are quite significant:

1. Global Debt Volcano

What's happening? For the past decade or so, global interest rates have been very low, making borrowing extremely cheap. So, whether it's countries, companies, or individuals, we've all borrowed massive amounts of money. The U.S. government's national debt is already an astronomical figure, and many companies also carry high levels of debt.
Where's the risk? Now, to combat inflation, central banks worldwide are raising interest rates, making the cost of borrowing much higher. This is like your monthly mortgage payment suddenly jumping from $1,000 to $2,000. For companies already struggling to break even or financially strained countries, this could be the straw that breaks the camel's back. Once widespread defaults occur, it will be like a domino effect, dragging banks down with them.

2. Geopolitical "Black Swans"

What's happening? You see things like the Russia-Ukraine conflict; you don't see things like trade frictions and tech wars between major powers. These aren't just headlines; they genuinely impact the economy.
Where's the risk? Conflicts directly disrupt global supply chains. For example, energy prices skyrocket, food can't be shipped out, and raw materials for manufacturing chips can't get through. This leads to soaring prices (inflation), a drastic increase in production costs for businesses, and declining profits. More importantly, it creates immense uncertainty, making everyone hesitant to invest or spend, and the "blood" of the economy—capital—begins to freeze up.

3. Commercial Real Estate, Especially Office Buildings, "Hollowing Out"

What's happening? The pandemic accustomed many people to working from home. Now, office buildings in many major city centers are empty and difficult to rent out.
Where's the risk? These office buildings are backed by massive bank loans. If landlords don't receive rent, they can't repay their bank loans. If a large number of office buildings face this problem, it will create huge bad debts. This is somewhat similar to the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, except that was about residential mortgages, and this time it could be commercial real estate loans. If small and medium-sized banks holding these loans can't withstand the pressure and collapse, it could trigger a chain reaction.

4. Unknown Risks of "Shadow Banking"

What's happening? This sounds mysterious, but it refers to financial institutions that lend and invest like banks but are not strictly regulated, such as some hedge funds and private equity firms.
Where's the risk? Because they are less regulated, they might engage in extremely high-risk activities. Usually, there's no issue, but once the market experiences severe volatility, they could collapse instantly. The scariest part is that because they operate "in the shadows," no one fully understands their scale or how deeply connected they are to traditional banks. The downfall of one "shadow bank" could spread like a virus throughout the entire financial system.

In summary:

The trigger for the next crisis is likely not a single event, but rather the first domino to fall.

It could be a major fund suddenly going bankrupt due to making the wrong bets, or a medium-sized country announcing a sovereign debt default, or perhaps a geopolitical conflict suddenly escalating.

This "first domino" itself may not be massive, but it will instantly ignite the long-accumulated problems mentioned above—debt, geopolitics, asset bubbles—leading to a collapse of trust, frantic selling off of assets, and withdrawal of capital, ultimately forming a global financial tsunami.