Why did Naval mention "learning to judge trends"?

Sure, here is the translation, maintaining the original structure and using natural English:

Okay, let's talk about this point from Naval Ravikant. Think of him like an old surfer who's lived by the beach for decades, telling you that the most important thing isn't how strong you are, but learning to read the waves.

Why does he emphasize "learning to judge trends" so much?

It's like surfing: You go with the wave, not against it.

Imagine you're in the ocean:

A huge wave (trend) comes: If you're a smart surfer, you'll judge the wave's direction and power, then ride its crest. With very little effort, you'll glide far, moving both fast and efficiently.
You swim against the wave: Even if you're an Olympic swimmer, you'll struggle enormously, exhaust yourself, might end up just going in circles, or even get pushed backward.

The "trends" Naval talks about are those huge waves. Think the internet of the past 20 years, mobile internet, and today's AI (Artificial Intelligence).

1. Multiplying Your Efforts vs. Cutting Them in Half

In a trend: If you're in a booming industry (like developing apps around 2010), the whole sector is growing rapidly, and opportunities are everywhere. It's like standing in an ascending elevator—you move upward even if you just stand still. Your efforts are amplified many times over by the trend.
In a declining industry: Conversely, if you're in a sunset industry (like newspaper printing), no matter how hard you innovate, the entire market is shrinking; your space only gets smaller. This is swimming against the wave—extremely hard work with low returns.

So, judging trends is primarily to help you focus your limited energy and time where it will "multiply your efforts".

Trends Create Entirely New "Playing Fields"

A true trend creates entirely new needs, entirely new jobs, and entirely new wealth opportunities.

Internet trend: It spawned programmers, product managers, e-commerce operations specialists, bloggers, YouTubers—professions that didn't exist before. People who saw this trend earliest and jumped in received the biggest rewards.
AI trend: It's now creating new opportunities too, like Prompt Engineers, AI application developers, AI model trainers, and so on.

Learning to judge trends is like possessing a treasure map. It doesn't show you where a few gold coins lie; it shows you where an entirely new, still largely untapped gold mine is. You can choose to mine that gold (start a venture), sell pickaxes and jeans (provide services supporting the trend), or invest in the mine's stock (invest).

This Isn't Chasing Fads—It's Recognizing Underlying Shifts

It's crucial to clarify that Naval's "judging trends" is fundamentally different from the everyday pursuit of "chasing fads."

A Fad: Is like a passing breeze—here one moment, gone the next. Think of a suddenly viral game or internet meme. Chasing fads often leads to getting stuck holding the bag.
A Trend: Is like tectonic movement—a slow, profound, irreversible shift. It's based on fundamental changes in technology, society, or culture.

How can you tell the difference?

A simple test: Ask yourself, "Does this thing make the world fundamentally more efficient or easier, or is it merely a novel toy?"

The smartphone is a trend because it fundamentally altered how people access information, communicate, and entertain themselves.
A mobile app that's only popular for a month is a fad.

Learning to judge trends requires seeing beyond the surface to recognize deeper, underlying shifts that are actually happening.

How to Cultivate This Judgment?

Naval also offered some suggestions, essentially:

Read extensively, especially foundational sciences: Don't just read the news; read books on physics, biology, computer science, history—core disciplines. They help you build a solid cognitive framework to understand the fundamental principles of how the world works. To see the waves, you first need to understand the currents and winds.
Follow your curiosity: Observe what the smartest people are tinkering with in their spare time. Many great trends started as seemingly insignificant "toys" only played with by a few curious individuals. Think early personal computers or Bitcoin.
Reason from first principles: Don't just follow the crowd. When something new appears, don't ask, "Is everyone using it?" Instead ask, "What fundamental problem does it solve? What is its cost structure? Can it scale?"

To summarize:

Naval emphasizes "learning to judge trends" because it's a meta-skill—one of the most crucial abilities determining the course of your life and career.

It helps you:

Focus your energy in the right place, harnessing the immense leverage provided by your era.
Spot opportunities others miss, whether in career advancement or investing/starting a business.
Make higher-quality long-term decisions, avoiding traps in sunset industries.

Ultimately, it’s about becoming the smart surfer who learns to ride the tides of the times, rather than getting swept away by the waves.