When will China's population enter an era of negative growth?

This has actually happened.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's population officially entered negative growth in 2022. Simply put, in that year, the number of deaths exceeded births by 850,000.

This is significant news, as it's the first time this has occurred in nearly 60 years.

It can be understood this way: In the past, we always said "more people, more power," and the population kept growing rapidly. But now the situation has changed, mainly due to two reasons:

1. Fewer births: The cost of raising children is now too high. Education, housing, and healthcare are major expenses, making many young people feel immense pressure. They either choose to have children later or not at all. Their views on childbearing are also different from their parents' generation.
2. Aging population: The peak birth cohorts from earlier periods (e.g., those born in the 1960s and 1970s) are now entering old age. With improved medical conditions and extended life expectancy, the proportion of the elderly population is continuously increasing.

So, with fewer newborns on one hand and an increasing elderly population on the other, the total population has begun to decline due to this ebb and flow. This marks China's entry into a new stage of demographic development.