Which years saw the most significant price increases for Japanese whisky?

Vinzenz Vollbrecht
Vinzenz Vollbrecht
Retired fund manager, now an investment advisor.

Ah, when it comes to this topic, it's truly a "sweet pain" for us whisky enthusiasts. The most exaggerated and astonishing price increases mainly occurred in two phases.

The first, and most crucial, explosion point: 2014 to 2015

You can view 2014 as a watershed year. Before this, although Japanese whisky had already won numerous international awards and gained some recognition, its prices were still relatively affordable, easily accessible to enthusiasts. However, a major event occurred at the end of 2014:

  • "The Case Caused by a Book": Jim Murray, one of the world's most authoritative whisky critics, awarded the title of "World Whisky of the Year 2015" to "Yamazaki Sherry Cask 2013" in his Whisky Bible.

This was like detonating a nuclear bomb. Imagine, what would happen if something previously considered "just good" was suddenly rated as the "world's best dish" by the world's top gourmet? Whisky merchants, collectors, investors, and even many people who didn't drink whisky at all, went crazy scrambling to buy Japanese whisky, especially Yamazaki.

Subsequently, from 2014-2015, a TV drama called Massan aired in Japan, telling the story of the founders of Japanese whisky. This further ignited a huge craze within Japan.

Therefore, the end of 2014 to 2015 marked the starting point for prices to skyrocket from "reasonable" to "insane". With a TV drama boosting sales domestically and world-class authority endorsement internationally, demand instantly multiplied hundreds of times. But whisky, a 12-year-old spirit was made 12 years ago; distilleries simply had no stock, so prices naturally soared.

The second phase was a period of panic-driven price increases: around 2018

After several years of frantic market consumption, major Japanese distilleries (mainly Suntory and Nikka) found that their aged raw spirit inventories were depleted, leading to severe supply shortages.

Consequently, around 2018, they did something that shook the market once again:

  • Discontinuation Announcement: They successively announced that their regular aged products, such as "Hibiki 17 Year Old" and "Hakushu 12 Year Old", would be suspended from sale due to insufficient aged stock.

As soon as this news broke, the market immediately panicked. The words "discontinued" or "out of print" are incredibly impactful. Before, it was "hard to buy"; now it became "might never be available again". Everyone wanted to hoard a bit more before it completely ran out, leading to another rapid surge in prices. Already expensive, they now reached a level many found incomprehensible.

To summarize, in plain language:

  • 2014-2015: It was like a talented actor suddenly winning an Oscar for Best Actor, becoming a global sensation overnight, with their value multiplying. This was a surge driven by "value discovery".
  • Around 2018: This "Best Actor" suddenly announced their retirement, and the DVDs of their previous films immediately became precious collectibles, causing prices to soar again. This was a surge driven by "scarcity panic".

So, if you started drinking Japanese whisky before 2014, congratulations, you experienced that "golden age". After that, it gradually transformed from a beverage into an investment and luxury item in the eyes of many.