Have historical financial crises led to changes in political systems?

兵 孟
兵 孟
Former central banker, expert in macro-prudential policy.

Yes, absolutely, and the connection is very significant. The relationship between financial crises and political system changes is like a major earthquake and its post-quake reconstruction. An earthquake (financial crisis) doesn't directly build houses, but it can collapse old ones, forcing people to consider whether to use new materials and designs to build a stronger house (political system change).

For example: Imagine you've worked hard your whole life, saving money in the bank or stock market. Then a financial crisis hits, and overnight, half your savings vanish, and you lose your job. You'd undoubtedly be furious, and you'd ask:

  • "What on earth happened?"
  • "Why didn't the government manage things better?"
  • "Why aren't the bankers who caused this mess being punished? Instead, taxpayers' money is being used to bail them out?"

When thousands, even millions, of people feel this way, trust in the existing government and system collapses. People start to feel, "This system isn't working; we need a different approach." At this point, the seeds of political change are sown.

Here are a few classic historical examples:

1. The Most Classic Example: The Great Depression of 1929

This was the most famous financial crisis in history, and it directly gave rise to two vastly different political transformations.

  • In the United States: The crisis led to the rise of President Roosevelt, who introduced the famous "New Deal." This was not merely an economic policy; it was a profound transformation of the political system. The government began large-scale intervention in the economy, establishing social security systems (such as pensions and unemployment insurance), and undertaking public works projects. This fundamentally altered the previous "small government, big market" model in the US, redefining the role of the state and government, an impact that continues to this day.

  • In Germany: The same crisis further exacerbated the already fragile Weimar Republic. Unemployment soared, social conflicts intensified, and the German people fell into despair. It was then that Hitler and his Nazi Party emerged, promising people jobs, food, and national glory, blaming all problems on Jews and foreign powers. Desperate people chose to believe him, ultimately leading to the Nazi rise to power, the complete destruction of the democratic republic, and its transformation into a totalitarian fascist regime.

2. The Asian Financial Crisis (1997)

This crisis swept across Asia, and one of the most typical examples is Indonesia.

  • Before the crisis, Indonesia had been ruled by strongman president Suharto for over 30 years. The financial crisis led to a severe depreciation of Indonesia's currency, skyrocketing prices, and the collapse of numerous businesses. Public anger reached its peak, eventually escalating into large-scale social movements that forced Suharto to step down. Subsequently, Indonesia embarked on a difficult transition to democracy. It can be said that this financial crisis was the last straw that broke the back of the authoritarian rule.

3. The 2008 Global Financial Crisis

This crisis is the most recent, and its effects are more complex and far-reaching.

  • While it did not directly give rise to entirely new political systems in Western countries like the Great Depression did, it significantly eroded public trust in traditional elite politics and globalization. People generally felt angry, believing that the "fat cats" on Wall Street messed everything up without being held accountable, while ordinary people bore the consequences.
  • This widespread discontent continued to fester in the following years, giving rise to various populist and anti-establishment political movements. Examples include the "Occupy Wall Street" movement in the US, the rise of far-right forces in many European countries, and even, to some extent, influencing major political events like Brexit and the election of Donald Trump. People began to question the existing political and economic order, seeking "change."

To summarize, why do financial crises lead to political change?

  1. Collapse of Trust: The economy is fundamental to people's livelihoods. When the economy systematically collapses, public trust in the government and existing systems plummets to an all-time low.
  2. Intensification of Conflicts: Crises typically exacerbate wealth inequality and social injustice, leading to an eruption of anger among the lower classes.
  3. Search for Alternatives: When the old model is no longer viable, people naturally seek new solutions. At this point, various radical and new political ideologies (whether good or bad) gain significant traction.

Therefore, a financial crisis acts like a stress test; it exposes the most vulnerable and unjust aspects of a nation's political system and, in the most painful way, forces society to confront and change them. Of course, the direction of change is uncertain; it might lead to a fairer, more perfect system, or it might slide into a worse abyss.