Can First Principles help discover 'Blue Ocean Markets'? How to avoid being misled by 'Red Ocean Fallacies'?

当然能，而且这可以说是第一性原理最有魅力的应用之一。

打个比方吧。想象一下在汽车被发明之前，所有人都想解决“如何让出行更快”这个问题。

当时的市场，就是一片“红海”。大家都在比谁的马更壮，谁的马车更轻、跑得更快。如果你也加入进去，想养一匹更快的马，那你就是在“红海”里跟所有人厮杀。

而所谓的“红海假象”就是，你看着大家都在养马，就以为这个生意的本质就是“养马比赛”，你被这个表象给骗了，以为唯一的出路就是把马养得比别人好。你所有的努力，都花在了改良马车和马匹上。

这个时候，一个用“第一性原理”思考的人来了。他不会想“我怎么能得到一匹更快的马”，他会问最根本的问题：“‘出行’的本质是什么？”

答案是：“把人或者物体，用更小的能量消耗、更快地从A点移动到B点”。

你看，“马”只是当时的解决方案，不是问题的本质。

顺着“高效位移”这个本质思路，他就会想：“除了马，还有什么东西能提供动力？除了马腿，还有什么东西能滚动？” 于是，他可能会想到用蒸汽机、用内燃机，然后把轮子装上去…… “汽车”这个全新的物种，这个巨大的“蓝海市场”就这么被发现了。他没有去跟别人比养马，而是开创了一个全新的赛道，在这里，他没有竞争对手。

所以，如何避免被“红海假象”误导？

别总盯着对手在做什么，要盯着用户在解决什么。 你总看别人在做什么，你就会不自觉地模仿，然后就陷入了“养马比赛”的怪圈。你应该去想，用户的那个最原始、最根本的需求到底是什么？
多问几个“为什么”，直到问不下去为止。 比如用户说“我想要一匹更快的马”，你要接着问“为什么你需要一匹更快的马？” -> “因为我想更快地从家到镇上” -> “为什么更快地去镇上对你很重要？” -> “因为可以节省我的时间，让我有空做别的事”。你看，核心需求浮现了——“节省时间”，而不是“马”。那解决“节省时间”这个问题的方案，可就不止“更快的马”这一种了。
拆解与重构。 把你认为理所当然的事情都拆开看。比如，“做电商就必须要有购物车吗？”“做社交就必须要有‘点赞’吗？” 把这些行业里约定俗成的元素都拆掉，回到最核心的“交易需求”或“连接需求”上，你才可能重构出一个全新的、别人没想到的东西。

说白了，第一性原理就是一把锤子，帮你砸开那些“行业规矩”和“大家都这么干”的思维外壳，让你看到问题的真正核心。当你盯着核心需求去创造，而不是盯着别人的产品去模仿时，你自然就走上了一条通往“蓝海”的路，也就不会被“红海”的假象迷惑了。

Absolutely, and this can be said to be one of the most compelling applications of first principles thinking.

Let's take an analogy. Imagine before the invention of the automobile, everyone was trying to solve the problem of "how to make travel faster."

The market at that time was a "red ocean." Everyone was competing on whose horse was stronger, whose carriage was lighter, and who could run faster. If you joined in, aiming to breed a faster horse, you'd be fighting everyone else in that "red ocean."

The so-called "red ocean fallacy" is when you see everyone breeding horses and mistakenly believe the essence of the business is a "horse breeding competition." You're deceived by this superficial view, thinking the only way out is to breed better horses than others. All your efforts are spent on improving carriages and horses.

At this point, someone thinking with "first principles" comes along. They wouldn't ask, "How can I get a faster horse?" Instead, they'd ask the fundamental question: "What is the essence of 'travel'?"

The answer is: "To move people or objects from point A to point B faster, with less energy consumption."

You see, "horses" were merely the solution at the time, not the essence of the problem.

Following this essential idea of "efficient displacement," they would think: "Besides horses, what else can provide power? Besides horse legs, what else can roll?" Thus, they might conceive of using steam engines, internal combustion engines, and then attaching wheels... The "automobile," this entirely new species, this massive "blue ocean market," was discovered. They didn't compete with others in horse breeding; instead, they pioneered a completely new path where they had no competitors.

So, how can you avoid being misled by the "red ocean fallacy"?

Don't just focus on what your competitors are doing; focus on what problems your users are solving. If you constantly watch what others are doing, you'll unconsciously imitate them and fall into the trap of the "horse breeding competition." Instead, you should consider what the user's most fundamental and original need truly is.
Ask 'why' multiple times until you can't ask anymore. For example, if a user says, "I want a faster horse," you should follow up with, "Why do you need a faster horse?" -> "Because I want to get from home to town quicker." -> "Why is getting to town quicker important to you?" -> "Because it saves me time, allowing me to do other things." You see, the core need emerges: "saving time," not "a horse." And there's more than just "a faster horse" as a solution to "saving time."
Deconstruct and Reconstruct. Take apart everything you consider self-evident. For instance, "Does e-commerce have to have a shopping cart?" "Does social media have to have a 'like' button?" By stripping away these conventional industry elements and returning to the core "transactional need" or "connection need," you might be able to reconstruct something entirely new that others haven't thought of.

In essence, first principles thinking is a hammer that helps you break open the shell of "industry norms" and "everyone does it this way" thinking, allowing you to see the true core of the problem. When you focus on creating based on core needs, rather than imitating others' products, you naturally embark on a path towards a "blue ocean" and won't be misled by the illusion of the "red ocean."