Is Starlink worth investing in? Why?

Alright, regarding whether Starlink is worth investing in, I'd like to share my perspective. Let's discuss this in plain language, without too much jargon.

First, the Conclusion: For an average person, investing now is almost impossible.

First, let's be clear: Starlink is not an independent publicly traded company. It's a project under SpaceX.

So, if you want to invest in Starlink, you're essentially investing in SpaceX. However, SpaceX is a private company and does not have publicly issued shares. This means you can't buy it on a stock exchange anytime you want, unlike Apple or Tencent shares.

For average individuals, the channels to invest in a "unicorn" like SpaceX are very limited. It typically requires going through specialized private equity funds, with extremely high entry barriers (e.g., starting from several million dollars) and significant risks.

Therefore, for us ordinary people, discussing "buying into" Starlink at present is more of a "spiritual investment" or, rather, focusing on its future prospects and awaiting a potential future IPO (Initial Public Offering).

If the Opportunity Arises in the Future, How Attractive Is It? (Opportunities and Advantages)

Assuming Starlink eventually goes public as an independent entity, what makes it attractive?

1. Disruptive Innovation, Enormous Market

   • Starlink addresses the "from nothing to something" internet problem. Its target customers are not those of us in cities with high-speed fiber optics and 5G, but rather regions without network coverage: remote mountains, ocean-going cargo ships, international flights, deserts, forests...
   • Imagine, billions of people worldwide still lack stable and fast internet. How vast is this market? Starlink uses satellite internet to directly cover the globe, essentially "airdropping" a solution into a blue ocean market, something traditional ground-based stations cannot achieve.

2. High Technical Barriers, Deep Moat

   • Reusable Rockets: Starlink's satellites are launched by SpaceX's own rockets. SpaceX's Falcon 9 rockets are reusable, which makes its launch costs significantly lower than any competitor – so low that others simply cannot compete in the short term. What it costs others to launch one satellite, SpaceX might launch ten.
   • Rapid Iteration: It's not a one-and-done deal where thousands of satellites are launched. It continuously launches new satellites and phases out older ones, with technology iterating very quickly. There are already several versions of Starlink satellites in orbit.

3. Clear Business Model, Promising Cash Flow

   • Its model is simple: selling terminal equipment (the pizza-box-like antenna) + charging a monthly fee. This is a subscription-based service, and once the user base grows, there will be a continuous stream of cash flow every month, which is a business model highly favored by investors.
   • Beyond individual users, it's also expanding into the enterprise market, for example, providing internet services to airlines and cruise lines, which represent "big deals."

Don't Just Look at the Upside; Understand the Risks (Challenges and Concerns)

Investment shouldn't only focus on the bright side; Starlink's risks are equally significant.

1. Money-Burning, Extremely Money-Burning

   • Building satellites, launching rockets, constructing ground stations... every step involves enormous capital expenditure. Elon Musk himself has stated that before Starlink can generate positive cash flow, the company could go bankrupt at any time. Although it currently looks promising, it remains a capital-intensive, high-investment business.

2. Competition is on the Horizon

   • Amazon's Jeff Bezos is also working on a similar project called "Project Kuiper," backed by equally deep pockets.
   • Europe and China also have their own satellite internet plans. While Starlink is currently far ahead, it won't be the only player in this arena in the coming years.

3. Policy and Regulatory Risks

   • Satellite internet is a global business, but each country has its own telecommunications regulatory policies. For your satellite signals to reach the ground, you need to obtain permission from the local government. This isn't purely a technical or business issue; there are complex international political factors involved. For example, some countries might restrict or prohibit Starlink services due to security concerns.

4. Profitability Remains a Mystery

   • Starlink's user growth is rapid, but has it actually become profitable? What is its profit margin? These core figures are unknown to the public because it's not listed. Its operating costs (maintaining a vast satellite network) and customer service costs are also unknowns.

In Summary

• For the Average Person: We are currently in a "watching from the sidelines" phase, as it's not publicly traded, so you can't buy shares. You can continue to follow its progress, treating it as a window into future technological trends.
• From an Investment Value Perspective: Starlink is undoubtedly a groundbreaking project, painting a very appealing future with immense potential. However, it is also a high-risk, high-investment gamble. Its success depends not only on technology and market but also heavily on cost control, global regulation, and the future competitive landscape.

If it ever truly has an IPO, it will certainly be a feast for the capital markets. But by then, its valuation will undoubtedly be very high, and whether average investors can still get a piece of the pie will require careful consideration of the opportunities and risks mentioned above.