How challenging is global coordinated response to financial crises?

兵 孟
兵 孟
Former central banker, expert in macro-prudential policy.

Hi, regarding this issue, I can share some of my thoughts. Global coordinated response to financial crises – it sounds wonderful, but in practice, it's incredibly difficult. You can imagine it as a large group of people trying to build a house together, but everyone has their own blueprints and hidden agendas.

The difficulties mainly stem from the following aspects:

1. Conflicting National Interests (Every Nation for Itself)

This is the core challenge. A financial crisis is like a sudden storm; although everyone is in the same boat, each country's position and situation are different.

  • Self-Preservation First: When a crisis hits, the first reaction of any government is definitely "save ourselves first." For example, Country A might immediately cut interest rates and print money to stimulate its own economy, but this could lead to currency devaluation, shifting the risk to Country B. Country B, seeing this, might think, "Hold on, you're doing this at my expense," and could adopt retaliatory policies. This leads to a classic "prisoner's dilemma," where everyone chooses the short-term strategy most beneficial to themselves, ultimately worsening the overall situation.
  • Who Bears the Responsibility and Cost? Bailouts require real money. Who pays? How much? Developed countries might feel developing countries are freeloading, while developing countries might feel the crisis was caused by developed countries playing financial games. Debating these issues can waste a lot of precious time.

2. Varying Economic Conditions and Policy Tools (Everyone Has Their Own Troubles)

Each country's economic situation varies greatly, just like human physiques; the same prescription doesn't necessarily suit everyone.

  • Different Ailments: During a crisis, some countries might just have a "mild cold" (slight economic recession), while others are suffering from "severe pneumonia" (systemic financial collapse). For "severely ill" countries, strong medicine is needed, such as large-scale government bailouts and fiscal stimulus. But "mild cold" countries might feel such a big fuss is unnecessary, or even worry about the side effects of strong medicine affecting them.
  • Different Medicine Chests: Some countries (like the US) have many tools in their "medicine chest," able to print money globally (dollar hegemony) and quickly cut interest rates. Many smaller countries, however, have low foreign exchange reserves and limited monetary policy independence, with only a few tools available. They can't keep up with the pace of major powers even if they wanted to.

3. Political and Ideological Games (Who's in Charge?)

Global cooperation requires a "leader," but everyone has their own ideas about who that should be.

  • Leadership Struggle: Is it the US, or Europe, or should emerging powers (like China) also have a greater say? Within institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, there's already a lot of contention among countries vying for dominance and rule-making power. During a crisis, this contention intensifies.
  • Domestic Political Constraints: Any international agreement needs to be approved by parliaments or the public once national leaders return home. For example, if Country A's president pledges 100 billion for a bailout internationally, but upon returning home, opposition parties and the public might say, "Our own country has so many problems, why are we using taxpayers' money to save others?" Such internal pressure often renders international commitments meaningless.

4. Response Speed Can't Keep Up with Crisis Spread (Urgency vs. Slow Meetings)

The collapse of financial markets is measured in hours, or even minutes. But international cooperation?

  • Lengthy Decision-Making Process: Organizing a G20 summit, leaders sit down, exchange pleasantries, state their positions, bargain, and finally reach a vaguely worded joint statement... This process can take weeks or even months. By the time everyone finally agrees, it's often too late; the crisis might have already escalated into a more severe problem.
  • Information Opacity: In the early stages of a crisis, countries often hide or sugarcoat their problems, hoping to resolve them quietly on their own. This prevents other countries from accurately assessing the situation, missing the optimal window for coordinated intervention.

In Summary

So, as you can see, global coordinated response to financial crises is like an "impossible mission." It requires all major countries, in a very short period, to overcome their respective short-term interests, political differences, and internal pressures, acting precisely as a team.

Although during the 2008 financial crisis, major global economies did show a certain degree of cooperation (e.g., coordinated actions at the G20 summit), many consider this an exception, achieved only under the immense fear of "pulling back from the brink." Even so, subsequent policy exits and coordination were fraught with contradictions.

Overall, ideals are grand, but reality is stark. In the face of the fundamental logic of national interests, true global coordination remains a long and arduous journey.