Will Sri Lanka experience social or political instability?

To put it this way, this issue needs to be looked at from two perspectives; you can't simply say "yes" or "no."

Firstly, compared to the nationwide unrest and the president fleeing in 2022, Sri Lanka's situation is much more stable now. You can imagine 2022 as a sudden high fever, and now, the fever has subsided. The country is in a recovery period, like recuperating from a serious illness.

On the positive side:

The economy is recovering: With assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), they've secured some loans, and the critical shortages of fuel, medicine, and food have largely been resolved. In Colombo, you can see bustling streets again, and people's lives are slowly returning to normal.
Social order is stable: After the new government took office, it implemented some strong measures, and large-scale nationwide protests are no longer seen. For tourists, tourist areas are very safe, and locals remain very warm and friendly towards visitors, as tourism is a vital source of income for them.

However, on the other hand, hidden dangers and uncertainties do exist:

The economic foundation is still very fragile: It's like someone recovering from a serious illness; though no longer in the ICU, they are still very weak and can't do heavy work. Sri Lanka's debt problem remains very severe, the cost of living (prices) for ordinary people is still very high, and many are struggling financially. This widespread hardship is a breeding ground for social discontent.
There's a critical political juncture: 2024 is an election year in Sri Lanka. Consider this: people are struggling, they harbor resentment, and during elections, various political forces can easily amplify this discontent. Therefore, some political rallies and small-scale protests might occur around the elections. This is a key risk point to watch in the coming months.
Sporadic protests might occur: While a nationwide upheaval like before is unlikely to recur, it's entirely possible for localized strikes or protests targeting specific policies to happen due to issues like price increases, taxes, or labor rights. For example, a union might organize a strike, leading to a one-day train stoppage.

So, here's a summary and advice for friends planning to travel:

The risk of a nationwide paralysis like in 2022 recurring in the short term is extremely low. You can generally travel now and safely enjoy its sunshine, beaches, and tea.
However, it's not a completely "calm" country either. Society is still in a sensitive recovery period, like a taut string that hasn't snapped.
If you plan to travel:
- Before and during your trip, pay a little attention to local news.
- In major cities, if you see crowds gathering or demonstrations, stay far away and don't join in or take photos.
- Be prepared for minor disruptions, such as temporary traffic interruptions due to strikes, and allow some flexibility in your itinerary.
- Local prices have risen significantly compared to a few years ago, so budget accordingly.

Overall, for a tourist, as long as you stick to conventional tourist routes and areas and maintain basic vigilance, Sri Lanka's beauty and the kindness of its people will still offer you a wonderful experience. Just be aware that the country is slowly recovering from a major setback.