Can first principles provide certainty when confronting uncertainty?

I find this question very interesting, let me share my thoughts.

First principles don't directly give you "certainty," especially not the absolute "1+1=2" kind. It's more like a very reliable compass in a dense fog.

You can understand it this way:

Most of the time, we think using "analogical reasoning." For example, if I want to start a business, I see Old Wang next door making money with his milk tea shop, so I open one too. This is analogy, or "copying homework." When the market is stable and the environment unchanged, this approach works well because Old Wang's success has proven the path viable.

But when "uncertainty" arises, the situation changes. Perhaps people suddenly stop liking milk tea, or a new regulation comes out prohibiting shops on the entire street. If you "copy Old Wang's homework" then, you're just falling into the pit with him.

What first principles do is completely discard the reference of "how Old Wang does it" and ask the most fundamental questions.

Taking the shop example again, first principles would make you think:

• What do people truly need? Do they need "milk tea," or a "refreshing, tasty drink," or a "place to relax and chat"?
• What is the essence of business? It's providing value at a low cost and then earning profit.
• What is my core advantage? Is it that my drinks are exceptionally delicious, or that I'm particularly good at interior design and creating an atmosphere?

You see, when you break down a problem into these most basic, unchangeable "building blocks," you're no longer stumbling blindly in the fog. You might discover that people don't dislike drinks; they just don't like milk tea anymore. So, could you switch to juice or coffee? Or you might find that people's core need is a place to hang out, in which case how good the drink tastes might not be the most important thing; the environment and internet speed are.

Therefore, the "certainty" that first principles bring is:

1. Certainty of Direction: You no longer imitate others but start from the most fundamental needs. This general direction is usually correct because you are grounded in the essence of things.
2. Certainty of Decision: Even if there are many possibilities in the future, every decision you make is derived from these solid "building blocks," not based on gut feelings. This gives you confidence and clarity on why you're doing what you're doing.

It cannot help you predict the future or tell you that "doing A will definitely succeed." However, when the path is unclear, it ensures that you are standing on solid ground, not quicksand. Every step you take is clear, logical, and well-founded.

In essence, it doesn't give you certainty of the final answer, but certainty of the thinking process and the basis for your decisions. In a chaotic situation, this feeling of "being sure I'm on the right path" is more important than anything else.