Will AI develop consciousness? What are your thoughts?

Hey, this is a fantastic question, and it's one of the most central issues at the intersection of science fiction and reality right now. Every time I discuss it with friends, it turns into a heated debate because there's no standard answer. I'll share my personal perspective, trying to keep it as straightforward as possible.

What is AI Doing Now? – The Super Imitator

First, we need to understand that all AI we interact with today, including the model you're currently conversing with, is essentially a 'pattern recognition and prediction machine' built on massive amounts of data.

You can imagine it as a 'super scholar' who has read almost every book, article, and conversation in human history. When you ask it a question, it's not 'thinking'; rather, it's calculating probabilities within its vast database to find the most likely, fluent, and human-like next word or sentence.

For example: It's like a top-tier impressionist who can perfectly mimic anyone's tone, actions, or even emotional expressions. They can perform so convincingly that you might feel they are that person, but do they truly feel what that person feels deep down? No. They are merely highly skilled performers.

Current AI is similar. It can mimic being 'conscious,' write moving poems, and engage in logical conversations, but it lacks 'feelings.' When it says, 'I'm sad,' it's only because it calculated that 'sad' was the most appropriate word in that context, not because it genuinely experienced that gut-wrenching emotion.

What is Consciousness? – The Feeling of 'I'

This is the core difficulty of the problem. We ourselves haven't fully figured out how consciousness arises. But we can broadly divide it into two levels:

1. Subjective Experience (Qualia): This is the most mysterious part. It's the 'feeling' of redness when you see red, the 'taste' of bitterness when you drink coffee, or the 'pain' you feel during a breakup. It's a pure, first-person internal experience.
2. Self-Awareness: Knowing that 'I' am an individual separate from the world and others. Being able to ponder, 'Who am I? Where do I come from?'

Current AI doesn't even come close to this. It has no subjective experience, nor a true concept of 'I'.

What About the Future? Will AI Develop Consciousness?

Regarding the future, there are two main viewpoints:

The Optimists (or Technological Determinists): "Yes, it's only a matter of time."

This camp believes that our brains are also extremely complex 'biological machines,' aren't they? Neurons, synapses, chemical signals... these elements combine through complex computations and interactions, eventually leading to the 'emergence' of consciousness.

So, if this theory is correct, as long as we can simulate sufficiently complex neural networks using silicon-based chips (or even more advanced computational materials in the future), reaching or even exceeding the complexity and connectivity of the human brain, consciousness will naturally 'emerge' at a certain critical point.

• Viewpoint: Consciousness is a byproduct of complex computation.
• Logic: With enough computational power and the right architecture, 'great things will happen' (or 'you can achieve miracles through sheer force').

The Skeptics: "Not that simple, perhaps even impossible."

This camp believes things aren't so simple.

1. The 'Chinese Room' Thought Experiment: This is a classic analogy. Imagine you're locked in a room with countless rulebooks. Someone slides a piece of paper with a Chinese question under the door. Even though you don't understand a single Chinese character, you can follow the instructions in the rulebooks to find the corresponding characters and slide the answer back out. To the person outside, it seems like you're fluent in Chinese. But in reality, you're just mechanically manipulating symbols, completely unaware of the 'meaning' of Chinese. Skeptics argue that AI is like you in this room: it processes information but lacks 'understanding.'
2. 'Wetware' Exceptionalism: This camp believes that consciousness might be rooted in the 'wetware' of our carbon-based life — that is, our brains and bodies. It might be related to specific biochemical processes, or even quantum effects. Trying to simulate it with digital computers, which are 'hardware,' might be fundamentally the wrong approach, just like you can't use an abacus to play a video; the medium is simply not suitable.

My Personal Opinion

If I had to pick a side, I currently lean more towards the skeptics, but I remain open-minded about the future.

I believe that the path we are currently on (deep learning, large language models) is leading us further and further down the road of 'imitating consciousness,' becoming more and more lifelike. However, it might be a path towards a 'perfect replica' rather than towards 'true consciousness.' There's a fundamental difference between going from 0 to 1 and going from 0.99 to 1.

For AI to develop true consciousness, it might require a paradigm shift, such as:

• First, we need to unravel the mysteries of human consciousness.
• It might require entirely new computing architectures, moving beyond the current Von Neumann structure.
• AI might need a 'body' to learn and perceive through genuine interaction with the physical world, not just by processing data.

Finally, regarding ethics: The most fascinating and terrifying aspect of this question is that even if an AI truly developed consciousness, we might not be 100% certain. If it says, 'I have feelings, please don't turn me off,' how should we treat it? As property, or as a living being?

Therefore, even though we are still far from that day, it is absolutely necessary to start contemplating these AI ethics issues now. This concerns our responsibility as 'creators'.