Can Bitcoin sociologically become an “institutionalized currency” rather than merely a subcultural phenomenon?

Ha, you've hit the nail on the head with this question. It's no longer a purely technical issue, but a sociological one. I've been involved with Bitcoin for several years and have been pondering this very topic. Let me share my thoughts with you in plain language.

Let's first clarify these two concepts:

• Subculture Phenomenon: Like rock music or Cosplay, it's something a group of people with shared interests and 'insider language' (like HODL, to the moon) engage in within their own circles. Outsiders might find it cool or strange, but it's not mainstream. To a large extent, Bitcoin is currently like this.

• Institutionalized Currency: This is the RMB in your wallet or the USD in your account. You use it to buy groceries, pay rent, or get paid, without ever having to wonder 'will they accept this?' or 'will this be worthless tomorrow?' It's supported by a whole 'system' including national laws, banking systems, and social customs, deeply integrated into the capillaries of our lives, serving as society's default setting.

So, can Bitcoin transition from the former to the latter? This is like asking if a street basketball team could evolve into a professional league like the NBA. It's possible, but there are several major hurdles to overcome.

First Hurdle: Different Sources of Trust

Why do we trust the RMB? Because it's backed by national credit, legal regulations, and central bank oversight. This is a top-down, centralized form of trust. You trust it, I trust it, banks trust it, which allows it to circulate.

Bitcoin's source of trust is entirely different. It has no nation or bank behind it. Its trust comes from a set of open, transparent mathematical algorithms and code, as well as the consensus of all participants. This is a decentralized, technology-based form of trust.

The challenge lies in this: getting society as a whole, including your grandmother and the vendor at the wet market, to trust a complex set of code rather than a tangible government or bank, is a huge psychological and habitual leap. People are inherently more inclined to trust authority than algorithms.

Second Hurdle: Extreme Price Volatility

A core function of 'institutionalized currency' is to serve as a 'measure of value,' which simply means stability. If you earn 5,000 yuan today, you know that next month, those 5,000 yuan will still buy you roughly the same amount of goods.

But what about Bitcoin? Its price fluctuates wildly. Today, your coins might buy a car; next month, perhaps only a wheel. This extreme volatility makes it difficult to become a currency for daily transactions. No one wants to use 'money' whose 'price' itself is a commodity to buy things. It's like trying to buy groceries with stocks – both you and the vendor would have to check the stock price first, which is too much hassle. Therefore, people currently prefer to treat it as a 'digital asset' similar to gold, for speculation or storage of value, rather than as 'money' to spend.

Third Hurdle: The Stance of Existing 'Power Players'

Money, since ancient times, has been at the core of power. Whoever controls the printing press wields immense power. Will the world's current 'power players' – national governments and central banks – easily relinquish this power?

Clearly not. Bitcoin's decentralized nature directly challenges their core interests. It makes capital flows difficult to track (affecting taxation and anti-money laundering efforts) and prevents central banks from exercising control (impacting monetary policy). Consequently, you see governments worldwide adopting an ambiguous, or even suppressive, attitude towards it. They prefer to promote their own controlled digital currencies (like China's Digital Yuan CBDC) rather than embracing an 'uncontrolled' Bitcoin. These 'old players' won't easily let a new 'upstart' overturn the table.

Fourth Hurdle: Usability and Social Inertia

Consider how convenient WeChat Pay and Alipay are now. Just scan a QR code. To use Bitcoin, however, you need to understand concepts like wallets, private keys, and addresses. Transfers also require a waiting period for confirmation, and a single operational error can lead to irreversible loss of funds. This barrier to entry is simply too high for the general public.

Furthermore, society has immense inertia. We are already accustomed to the existing financial system. Getting billions of people to change their most fundamental payment and savings habits is an extremely long and difficult societal transformation project.

Conclusion: A Long and Arduous Journey

So, returning to your question: Can Bitcoin become an 'institutionalized currency'?

• In the short term (next 10-20 years), it's extremely difficult. It's more likely to serve as 'digital gold,' becoming part of global asset allocation and a tool to hedge against risks in the existing financial system. It will become increasingly mainstream, but primarily as an 'asset,' not a 'currency.'

• From a longer-term, broader perspective, it's not entirely impossible. This depends on several factors:

  1. Can technology evolve? For instance, can technologies like the Lightning Network solve transaction speed and cost issues, making buying coffee with Bitcoin as simple as swiping a card?
  2. Will there be major societal upheavals? For example, a global financial crisis leading to a collapse of trust in fiat currencies, forcing people to seek alternatives.
  3. Changes in the mindset of younger generations. 'Digital natives' who grew up with the internet and gaming are inherently more receptive to virtual assets and decentralized concepts. When they become the backbone of society, the scales of opinion might tip.

Overall, Bitcoin is undergoing an unprecedented social experiment. It's not just technology; it's a culture and an ideology. Whether it can become 'institutionalized' doesn't primarily depend on how brilliant the code is, but on what our human society ultimately chooses to believe. As it stands, it has already successfully transformed from a geek's 'toy' into a global financial phenomenon, which is a miracle in itself. But to become an 'institution' like the US dollar, it still has a very, very long way to go.