From the perspectives of skill and luck, how does he evaluate this 'once-in-a-lifetime' trading success?

Okay, let's talk about the legendary deal that made Japanese stock god B.N.F. (Takashi Kotegawa) famous overnight. It truly is an epic story. To understand it from his perspective, considering both skill and luck, it probably felt something like this.

The Background of the Trade: An Epic "Fat Finger" Fall from the Sky

First, we need to understand the trade that made him famous. It happened on December 8th, 2005, during the listing of a company called J-Com in Japan. A trader at a brokerage firm (Mizuho Securities) made a colossal mistake:

Intended Action: To sell 1 share of J-Com stock at 610,000 yen.
Mistakenly Typed: To sell 610,000 shares at 1 yen per share.

Imagine mispricing a ¥610,000 luxury bag at ¥1 and listing 610,000 units in stock. The market went berserk instantly, and the stock price collapsed.

This was the moment B.N.F. sprung into action. Within a mere ten to twenty minutes, he snapped up a massive amount of the erroneously dumped shares. Then, after the price was corrected, he sold them. It's reported he made roughly 2 billion yen in one day (about 130 million RMB at the time).

So, how might he evaluate this operation himself? We can break it down into two parts.

I. The Element of Luck: "Manna from Heaven, But You Gotta Be Walking Under It"

From a luck perspective, this was an opportunity occurring once in a hundred years.

It Was an "Accident," Not a "Rule": A "fat finger" error of this magnitude is incredibly rare in mature financial markets. It couldn't be predicted by analyzing company fundamentals or technical charts. It was purely a serendipitous windfall—manna from heaven. B.N.F. himself later admitted such chances are rare and unpredictable.
Perfect Timing: He absolutely needed to be sitting in front of his computer at that exact time and date, fully alert and glued to the market screens. If he had taken the day off, or gotten distracted doing something else, this chance would have vanished in an instant.

It's fair to say the appearance of the opportunity was 100% luck. It's like being nearly dead of thirst in a desert when rain suddenly pours from the sky. The rain? That's your luck. You didn't summon it.

II. The Element of Skill: "Seeing the Manna Isn't Enough, You Need the Skill to Catch It"

If the opportunity was luck, then capitalizing on it was undeniably solid skill and capability. This was the key to his "god-like" status and what he likely takes true personal pride in.

Sharp "Market Smell" (Market Analysis):
- When the J-Com stock price imploded, most people's first reaction was panic: "Did something big happen to this company? Get out now!"
- But B.N.F.'s first thought was: "This isn't normal!" Relying on years of trading experience, he instantly recognized this wasn't standard market selling but a massive error. That intuition to identify anomalies and spot arbitrage opportunities was honed through relentless practice.
Decisive Action and Execution (Trading Strategy):
- Seeing the opportunity, he didn't hesitate for a second. Ordinary people might still be doubting: "Is this a trap? Could it be a trick?"
- He made the decision almost within seconds—to go All in. He quickly calculated how much he could buy and entered the orders. This ability to stay calm under immense pressure and execute decisively is a core trait of top traders.
Solid Capital and Psychological Preparedness (Investment Psychology):
- To catch this "manna," you needed a big enough "plate." By this time, he had already accumulated substantial capital through day trading. Without money, even seeing the opportunity is futile.
- More importantly, it took psychological fortitude. Plunging his entire significant fortune onto this abnormal volatility within minutes required extreme confidence and psychological endurance. This wasn't gambling; it was acting on absolute faith in his own judgment—a trust forged by countless past successes and failures.
Understanding the Rules:
- He understood exchange rules, knowing that such erroneous orders would likely eventually be corrected or repurchased by the brokerage, causing the price to inevitably normalize. His deep comprehension of market mechanics gave him the courage to take the leap.

Conclusion: How Might He Himself Evaluate It?

If B.N.F. himself were to evaluate this event, he would probably say very calmly:

"The emergence of the opportunity was luck, but my ability to seize it was skill."

He is known for being very low-key and pragmatic, unlikely to attribute success entirely to luck. In his view:

Luck was that astronomically valuable "glitch order." That part was beyond his control; it was like the market deciding to "give him a meal."
Skill came from years of studying the market like a disciplined monk—abandoning all leisure, meticulously reviewing charts for over 10 hours daily—to hone his market intuition, decision-making ability, and execution.

Therefore, this trade that made him "famous overnight" likely felt more like the ultimate test of the skills he had built up over many years. The market presented him with a purely serendipitous opportunity to test all of his accumulated skill, wisdom, and nerve—and he delivered a perfect performance.

It's like a firefighter who trained for ten years finally encountering the exact fire that desperately needed him and could define his career. The fire itself starting was incidental (luck), but the ability to charge in and save lives relied on daily, relentless training (skill).