Why has Japanese whisky experienced a cycle of 'decline, revival, and prosperity'?

This story is quite fascinating, like watching a dramatic TV series. The journey of Japanese whisky over the past few decades can be summarized in three stages: "Disliked -> Award-winning -> Highly Sought After."

Phase One: The Decline (roughly late 1980s to early 2000s) - "An Old Man's Drink"

Consider this: in the 1980s, Japan's economic bubble burst, and people found themselves with tighter budgets. The days of enjoying a whisky at a fancy bar were long gone. This was the broader context.

More importantly, the tastes of young Japanese people changed. In their eyes, whisky was an 'old man's drink' consumed by their fathers and grandfathers – expensive, strong, and outdated. Young people preferred beer, shochu, or fruit-flavored chuhai, which felt lighter and more fashionable.

The result? Whisky sales plummeted. Distilleries faced severe hardship, forced to drastically cut production, and some even closed down entirely (like Karuizawa and Hanyu, now fetching exorbitant prices, which met their demise during this period). They could never have imagined then how precious these whiskies would become today. This 'production cut' during the decline also laid the groundwork for the later 'shortage'.

Phase Two: The Revival (early 2000s to around 2010) - "Our Own Stuff Is Actually This Good?"

The turning point came dramatically. Simply put, it was a case of 'flowers blooming within the wall, their fragrance spreading outside' – meaning, it gained recognition abroad before at home.

Japanese whisky artisans, however, had never been idle. They were incredibly dedicated, learning Scottish techniques but continuously refining them to create delicate, balanced whiskies best suited for the Asian palate. Yet, they received little appreciation domestically.

Then, in 2001, a highly authoritative British publication, Whisky Magazine, held a blind tasting competition, and Nikka's 'Yoichi 10 Year' scored the highest. In 2003, Suntory's 'Yamazaki 12 Year' won a gold medal at the ISC (International Spirits Challenge).

This stunned whisky enthusiasts worldwide. Everyone exclaimed, 'What? Japan makes whisky? And it's this good?'

When this news reached Japan, the Japanese themselves were surprised: 'So, our own products are so highly regarded internationally?' It was like a quiet neighbor suddenly winning an Oscar – you'd certainly look at them differently, wouldn't you?

Concurrently, Suntory launched a highly successful marketing campaign in Japan, promoting the 'Highball' (whisky mixed with soda water and ice). They branded this drink as fashionable, refreshing, and suitable for pairing with meals, instantly capturing the attention of young people. Whisky was no longer an old-fashioned spirit but a trendy, easy-to-drink beverage.

Thus, by walking on two legs – 'international awards' and 'domestic marketing' – Japanese whisky's popularity began to rapidly recover at home.

Phase Three: The Boom (2010 to present) - "Hard to Find, Prices Soar"

The revival was followed by a complete explosion and prosperity.

In 2014, a TV drama called 'Massan' became a nationwide hit in Japan. It told the story of Masataka Taketsuru, the founder of Nikka Whisky, and his Scottish wife. The show vividly portrayed the craftsmanship and romantic history of Japanese whisky, further fueling its popularity.

More crucially, international awards poured in. Notably, in 2015, Jim Murray's 'Whisky Bible' named Suntory's 'Yamazaki Sherry Cask 2013' as the 'World Whisky of the Year.' This was a monumental event in the global whisky world, akin to winning the Nobel Prize for whisky.

Suddenly, all eyes worldwide turned to Japanese whisky. Everyone wanted to taste what 'the world's best' truly tasted like.

But here's the problem: remember how distilleries cut production during the decline? Whisky needs time to age. If not much was produced 10 or 20 years ago, there naturally isn't much aged stock available now.

Soaring demand + scarce inventory = skyrocketing prices.

Thus, the situation we see today emerged: entry-level whiskies like Yamazaki 12 Year and Hakushu 12 Year have quadrupled in price and are still hard to come by. Aged whiskies (e.g., 18-year, 25-year) have become luxury items directly at auctions.

In summary:

1. Decline: Poor economy, coupled with young people finding it old-fashioned, led to low consumption, forcing distilleries to cut production.
2. Revival: Winning blind tasting awards internationally proved its quality and stunned the world; concurrently, domestic marketing through Highball made it fashionable again.
3. Prosperity: Achieving the top honor of 'World's Best,' coupled with a TV drama boost, led to an explosion in global demand. However, early production cuts resulted in insufficient stock, making it a rare commodity, and prices soared, turning it into a star in the spirits world.

Currently, many established distilleries have discontinued their regular age-statement products due to insufficient aged stock, switching to selling No Age Statement (NAS) products. At the same time, a large number of new, smaller distilleries have emerged, hoping to catch this wave. It's safe to say that the story of Japanese whisky is still unfolding.