Is financial crisis the 'destiny' of capitalism?

嗨，关于这个问题，我谈谈我的看法，希望能帮你理解。

Is Financial Crisis the "Destiny" of Capitalism?

One could say that financial crises are more like a "hereditary disease" of capitalism. It's not a curse or pure bad luck, but rather a high-recurrence risk deeply rooted in the operational model of capitalism.

We can imagine it as a game with the following rules:

1. Core Driving Force: The Pursuit of Profit

In the game of capitalism, the biggest goal is to make money. Whether it's individuals, companies, or banks, everyone is trying to increase their wealth. This is the engine that drives the entire system. To earn more money, companies expand production, individuals invest, and banks try every means to lend money out to earn interest.

2. The Accelerator: Credit (i.e., Borrowing Money)

Relying solely on the money at hand to grow slowly is too slow. So, a powerful tool emerged—credit.

You can think of it as "spending tomorrow's money to fulfill today's dreams."

Banks and financial institutions are happy to lend money to businesses and individuals because they can collect interest. Businesses borrow to expand, and individuals borrow to buy houses, cars, and consume. This instantly puts the economy into high gear; everything looks prosperous, and GDP grows rapidly.

3. The Formation of Bubbles: From Optimism to Frenzy

When the economy looks great, people become increasingly optimistic.

• Banks feel: "The risk is very low, everyone can repay," so they start loosening lending conditions, even lending money to people with less-than-stellar credit.
• Investors feel: "Housing/stock prices will always rise," so they rush into the market with borrowed money, further pushing up prices.
• Ordinary people feel: "If I don't buy now, I'll miss out," and they too join the ranks of borrowing and investing.

At this point, a huge "bubble" inflates. The price of assets (like houses) far exceeds their intrinsic value, but because everyone believes they will continue to rise, the game can still go on.

4. The Inevitable Tipping Point: The Bursting of the Bubble

A bubble is, after all, a bubble; it cannot expand indefinitely. There will always be a fuse that ignites its burst. Possible reasons are numerous:

• Interest rate hikes: Central banks raise interest rates to cool down the economy. The cost of borrowing increases, and many people suddenly find they can't afford their monthly mortgage payments.
• Collapse of a major company: A seemingly stable big player suddenly collapses, triggering market panic.
• Reversal of expectations: People suddenly realize, "Wait, housing/stock prices are ridiculously high," and begin to frantically sell off assets.

Once people start defaulting on payments or selling off assets, a chain reaction begins:

1. Wave of defaults: More and more people can't repay their loans, leaving banks with a pile of unrecoverable bad debts.
2. Bank panic: To protect themselves, banks immediately tighten credit. They not only stop issuing new loans but also demand repayment from previous borrowers. This is known as "credit crunch."
3. Business failures: Businesses can't borrow money, their capital chains break, forcing them to lay off employees or even go bankrupt.
4. Unemployment and consumption downgrade: People lose their jobs or fear losing them, so they become reluctant to spend. Consumption drops sharply.
5. Vicious cycle: No consumption -> businesses have no income -> further layoffs/bankruptcies -> even less consumption...

A full-blown financial crisis erupts. It's like a plague whose seeds were sown during times of prosperity.

Conclusion: Can It Be Cured?

Since it's a "hereditary disease," it's difficult to cure completely, but it can be "controlled."

• Governments and central banks are like "doctors." When the economy overheats, they can try to cool down the system through measures like raising interest rates and strengthening regulation, preventing bubbles from inflating too much. After a crisis erupts, they can "inject blood" into the market through methods like lowering interest rates and printing money (quantitative easing) to prevent a complete economic collapse.

• However, the scale of this "treatment" is extremely difficult to grasp. Too strict control might stifle economic vitality; too loose control might allow the seeds of the next crisis to take root and grow.

Therefore, as long as the fundamental logic of profit pursuit remains unchanged, as long as credit exists as an accelerator, and as long as human greed and fear persist, this cycle of "boom-bubble-bust-recession" is almost inevitable.

Thus, while saying financial crises are the "destiny" of capitalism might sound a bit absolute, to a large extent, they are indeed an inherent and inescapable part of this system. What we can do is primarily strive to make the symptoms of the next occurrence milder and the recovery quicker.