Is the excessive hype surrounding humanoid robots a bubble of commercial and capital speculation?

Hey, you've hit the nail on the head with the topic of humanoid robots. They've been incredibly hot lately, with product launches and demonstrations of their capabilities making it feel like the future from sci-fi movies is just around the corner.

As for whether there's a bubble involved, my view is: there's both real substance and a lot of hype, and they're intertwined.

We can imagine it like a freshly poured beer: there's a thick layer of foam on top, and the actual beer is underneath.

First, let's talk about the "beer" (why the hype is justified)

1. Technological progress is real: This isn't pure fantasy. Look at Boston Dynamics' robots doing parkour and backflips, or Tesla's Optimus folding clothes and doing yoga. Behind this are tangible breakthroughs in AI (especially large models), motors, and sensors. The robots' "brains" are smarter, and their "motor skills" are more coordinated.
2. The potential is immense: Why are capital and markets so excited? Because everyone sees the potential for a "general-purpose worker." If a robot can work like a human in any environment, the applications are endless:
   • Factories: Replacing tedious, repetitive labor on assembly lines.
   • Logistics: Moving boxes and sorting packages in warehouses.
   • Homes: Caring for the elderly, doing household chores.
   • Hazardous environments: Replacing humans in disaster relief and exploration. Once this market opens up, it's a trillion-dollar opportunity. Who wouldn't want to get in early?
3. Giants are entering the arena: Elon Musk and Tesla are personally getting involved, and Nvidia is providing the "brains" for robots. This gives the entire industry a huge shot in the arm. When big players invest real money, it shows they are truly optimistic about this direction, rather than just small companies spinning tales to raise funds.

Now, let's look at the "foam" (what's overhyped)

1. From "can walk" to "can work" is still a long, long way: Most of the videos we see now are staged in ideal laboratory environments. A robot that can fold one T-shirt doesn't mean it can handle a pile of clothes with varying materials, sizes, and shapes. Its hand can pick up an egg, but that doesn't mean it can tighten a screw with a wrench. Commercialization demands stability, reliability, and efficiency, and current robots are still far from that.
2. Costs are ridiculously high: A humanoid robot that can do some work often costs hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars. How would a factory owner choose? Would they spend $2 million on a humanoid robot that might frequently break down, or $200,000 on a robotic arm that can only tighten screw caps but is extremely stable and reliable? The answer is obvious. Until costs drop sufficiently, large-scale commercialization remains an empty promise.
3. "PowerPoint robots" and capital speculation: Some companies might have very immature technology, but for fundraising purposes, they'll package a prototype as incredibly advanced, create cool videos, and hold lavish press conferences. Investors, fearful of missing out on the next "Tesla," quickly pour in money. This leads to inflated valuations, and that's how the bubble inflates. What's being hyped is a distant "expectation," not the immediate "reality."

In summary

So, the current humanoid robot craze is very similar to the dot-com bubble of the early 2000s.

• There's definitely a bubble: Many companies will fail, and many investments will go to waste.
• But the direction is right: Just as the internet eventually changed the world, if humanoid robots ultimately succeed, they will bring about disruptive changes.

For us ordinary people, it's fine to enjoy the spectacle and remain optimistic about the future. However, we must also clearly recognize that there's a long way to go—perhaps five, ten, or even more years—from being "internet sensations" in labs to becoming "helpers" by our side. Don't get carried away by overly exaggerated publicity.