How does Naval define "judgment"?

Okay, let's talk about Naval Ravikant's understanding of the concept of "judgment." This is indeed a very core part of his philosophy.

Naval's View on "Judgment": More Than Smarts, It’s Seeing the Future

If you ask Naval Ravikant what "judgment" is, he won't give you a complex philosophical definition. His explanation is very direct and practical.

Simply put, Naval believes:

Judgment is the ability to see the long-term consequences of your actions.

That’s it. But there’s a lot to unpack beneath this simple statement.

1. Judgment ≠ IQ (Intelligence)

Think of it like driving:

IQ is like horsepower. More horsepower means the car goes faster and handles complex problems quicker.
Judgment is like the steering wheel and navigation system. It determines where you're going, which route to take, and whether you can avoid cliffs and detours.

A person with high IQ but poor judgment is like a powerful Ferrari with no steering wheel – they might crash into a wall at high speed. A person with good judgment, even driving an ordinary car, will steadily reach their destination.

Therefore, Naval emphasizes that judgment is more important than intelligence, especially when it comes to building wealth and achieving happiness.

2. Judgment is About the "Long Term"

We make decisions every day, but most people choose "short-term optimizations."

Too tired today, skip the gym. (Short-term comfort, long-term health damage)
That dessert looks amazing, just have one piece. (Short-term satisfaction, long-term weight gain)
That stock is soaring, jump in now! (Short-term fear of missing out, long-term risk of getting trapped)

People with good judgment automatically switch their mindset to a "long-term perspective." When making decisions, they instinctively think: "What will this decision bring me in one year, five years, ten years?"

They resist short-term temptations and choose the path that looks harder now but offers the highest long-term rewards. This is the core manifestation of judgment.

3. Judgment is "Learned," Not Innate

This is the most encouraging point. Naval doesn't believe judgment is some mysterious innate talent, but rather a skill that can be deliberately practiced. How?

Learn from Experience: You don't learn it by memorizing concepts in a classroom. You have to actually do things, place bets, make mistakes, and reflect on the results. In his words, you need "Skin in the Game." When your own money, time, and reputation are on the line, you truly pay attention and learn.
Read Foundational Fields Extensively: He doesn't mean reading the news or chasing viral crazes, but studying knowledge with a long "shelf life," such as:
- Science (especially Physics, Biology): Understanding the fundamental rules of the world.
- Mathematics: Cultivating rigorous logic.
- Microeconomics: Understanding how human nature and markets work.
- Game Theory: Understanding strategies for human interaction.

These foundational knowledge bases provide you with diverse "Mental Models," allowing you to analyze problems from different angles for greater clarity.

Stay Calm, See Reality: Good judgment requires removing preconceptions or filters, whether optimistic or pessimistic. You need to view facts as objectively as possible, not be swayed by emotions, desires, or fears. As he says, it's about "embracing reality and betting against it."

To Summarize

So, the next time you hear Naval talk about "judgment," you can understand it like this:

It doesn't measure how smart you are, nor how fast you react. It's the wisdom to perceive cause-and-effect and foresee the future. This wisdom helps you instinctively choose the path leading to long-term happiness and success at life's countless forks in the road.

It's a "muscle" that can be constantly strengthened through learning and practice – and probably one of the most valuable "muscles" you can build in your lifetime.