In addition to the Bias Ratio, does he use other technical indicators for auxiliary judgment, such as Trading Volume, MACD, or RSI?
Okay, here is the translation of the provided text about "B.N.F." Koike Takashi's trading approach, maintaining the original markdown format as requested:
The Core is the Deviation Ratio, But It's Never Just One Thing
When speaking of Koike Takashi, the first thing that comes to mind for most is his "Contrarian Trading Method based on Deviation Ratio." This is indeed his most famous and core weapon, but if you think he became a legend relying solely on this one indicator, that's far too simplistic.
A top-tier trader is absolutely a comprehensive decision-maker, not a robot that only knows how to push one button.
The Deviation Ratio is His "Trigger"
You can think of it this way: The Deviation Ratio is like a "radar" he uses to find targets. When he sees a stock's price, especially over a short period, deviate significantly from its 25-day moving average (the commonly known 25-day line) – like plunging 20% to 30%, causing the deviation ratio to become very large – that's when his radar beeps.
It's similar to a rubber band: stretch it too far, and it inevitably has a tendency to snap back. Koike Takashi specializes in capturing that exact "rebound" moment. This is his core entry point, the timing for pulling the trigger.
Beyond the Deviation Ratio, He Values These Even More
But before pulling the trigger, he will always look at the following things to confirm "whether this target is worth taking the shot."
1. Overall Market Sentiment (Direction of the Broader Market)
This is a very, very important point! He isn't someone who only stares at individual stocks. He runs multiple screens simultaneously, closely monitoring the Nikkei 225 index, futures indices, and even the US Dow Jones Industrial Average.
- Simply put: He's judging whether there's a "tailwind" or a "headwind."
- For example: If the entire market is in a panic-driven freefall, even if he sees a large deviation ratio in a specific stock, he likely won't jump in to buy because "when the nest is overturned, no egg stays intact." If the broader market is weak, the rebound in an individual stock could be very feeble or continue falling further. Conversely, if the market is stable or turning positive, the success rate of such individual stock rebounds is much higher. An individual stock is a small boat; the broader market is the tide.
2. Trading Volume (The Sentiment of Market Participants)
Trading volume is the "soul" of technical analysis. Koike Takashi absolutely does not ignore it.
- During a Plunge: If the stock price plunges on heavy volume in a short period, it indicates extreme panic washing out weak holders ("shaking out loose hands"). In this scenario, once the price stabilizes, the rebound is often strong because potential sellers are largely exhausted.
- During the Rebound: After buying, he watches to see if volume increases moderately during the rebound. If the rebound occurs on low volume, it suggests a lack of conviction among buyers and could be just a temporary surge.
3. Sector Rotation (Which Industries Are in Favor)
He is extremely sensitive to market trends and sector rotation. He doesn't just grab any random stock; he observes which sectors are currently attracting capital and which are being abandoned.
- He tends to look for stocks within hot sectors at the time that have been "wrongfully punished" due to sudden negative news or panic. This is because such stocks have high visibility; once market sentiment stabilizes, capital flows back into them quickly, prompting the fastest rebounds.
What About MACD, RSI, etc.?
Regarding whether he uses "oscillator indicators" like MACD or RSI, he has almost never explicitly mentioned it in all publicly available interviews and materials.
We can speculate why:
- Lagging Nature of Indicators: Trend indicators like MACD can be somewhat slow for his extremely short-term trading style focused on capturing sudden rebounds. By the time MACD forms a golden cross, the price may have already rebounded significantly.
- Incompatible Style: His method leans more towards "naked candlestick charts" combined with core moving average deviation judgment – it's a more direct, more primitive assessment of sentiment. He focuses on the most intuitive relationship between price and the moving average, and the energy reflected in volume, rather than derivative indicators derived from complex calculations. While RSI is also an overbought/oversold indicator with core logic similar to the deviation ratio, it might represent information redundancy for him.
To Summarize
So, to answer your question: beyond the deviation ratio, he absolutely uses other technical analysis tools, the most important being "broader market trend assessment" and "volume analysis." Furthermore, his grasp of overall market sentiment and sector trends is critical to his success.
You can imagine him as a top-tier hunter:
- The Deviation Ratio is his sight for targeting prey.
- The Broader Market and Volume represent his observation of wind direction, weather, and the overall movement of the forest before deciding to take the shot.
- MACD/RSI might be like finer tools, but at his level, this hunter probably trusts his own direct perception of the environment more than watching dials.
His success stems from executing a simple core logic (the Deviation Ratio) within a complex, comprehensive market analysis framework.