From a probabilistic standpoint, how likely do you think it is for Starship to land on the Moon?

Frankly, I think the probability of Starship landing on the moon is quite high now, though it's not 100% guaranteed.

Consider this: SpaceX has been developing Starship for years. While it has exploded several times during test flights, which looked quite alarming, they've improved it after each explosion, making it smoother and smoother. Recent flights have managed to reach space and return safely in part, indicating that the technology is gradually falling into place.

Moreover, NASA is quite supportive, even making it a part of the Artemis lunar landing program. It's highly likely that future human missions to the moon will indeed rely on it. Although every step, from Earth launch to in-orbit refueling and lunar landing, is prone to issues, SpaceX's approach is "test and iterate," unafraid of failure.

So, purely based on probability, I'd estimate there's a 60-70% or higher chance of a successful landing. It doesn't mean it will definitely succeed next time, but within the next few years, I think it's highly probable we'll see Starship land steadily on the moon. Of course, it also depends on whether there's enough funding and if all technical hurdles can be overcome, which aren't things that can be solved immediately just by effort. All in all, I'm quite optimistic about it.