Why does Naval believe that "risk can be learned"?

Hi there, thrilled to chat about this topic! Naval Ravikant is a thinker I deeply admire, and his perspective on "risk" fundamentally challenges conventional wisdom for many people.

When ordinary folks hear the word "risk," what often comes to mind is gambling, walking a tightrope, or dumping all their savings into the stock market. It feels like arm-wrestling an invisible demon, where winning or losing is left entirely to luck.

But Naval sees it differently. He believes risk isn't something to be "gambled" with by chance; it's something that can be "harnessed" through wisdom and practice.

Why does he think this? Let’s break it down from a few angles, using straightforward language and some metaphors.

1. Think of Risk Like "Surfing," Not "Rolling the Dice"

For many, risk feels like betting on red or black at a casino. You place your chips and then can only pray, with the result completely out of your control. It’s a pure game of luck.

In Naval’s view, real risk is more like learning to surf.

The Beginner Paddles Out: Someone new to surfing sees a big wave as a huge risk that could slam them underwater. Knowing nothing, they rely on luck and brute force—often with bad results.
The Expert Catches the Wave: An experienced surfer looks at the same big wave and sees an "opportunity." They can read the wave’s speed, direction, and power, knowing precisely when to paddle, when to stand up, and how to balance. They aren’t gambling; they’re using learned skills to dance with nature.

"Learning risk" is like learning to surf. You aren’t trying to eliminate risk (the waves are always there); you’re learning to recognize it, understand it, and leverage its power.

2. How Do You "Learn" Risk? Naval’s Three Key Mindsets

So, how do you specifically learn risk like surfing? Naval’s core philosophy boils down to these points:

Point 1: Start with "Small Waves" – Avoid Getting Wiped Out

Corresponding Concept: Avoid Ruin

A smart surf instructor won’t send a beginner into 10-meter monsters on day one. They’ll have you start in waist-deep water on a big, stable board, practicing feeling the current while lying down.

In real life, this means: Don’t play games where one failure means you’re out for good.

Bad Example: Betting your entire life savings, or even borrowed money, on a cryptocurrency you don’t understand at all. If you lose, game over—you get no chance to learn.
Good Example: Investing a small portion of disposable income (say, 5%), or spending some evenings while still employed on a side hustle, writing a blog, or starting a podcast. Even if it fails, you’ve only lost some time and energy while gaining valuable experience—your first lesson learned in a "small wave."

Point 2: Get in the Water Often, Experiment, and Don’t Fear Falling

Corresponding Concept: Play Iterated Games

You can’t learn to surf by reading a book. You have to paddle, try to stand up, fall down, get back up—over and over. Experts have wiped out thousands of times.

Learning risk is the same. You need to accumulate "risk intuition" through lots of small-scale experiments.

Each little startup idea, each small investment, each time you speak in public... is a trip into the "water."
Most attempts won’t yield earth-shattering results and might even "fail." But each failure is like falling off your board—you swallow some water but immediately learn: "Oh, my timing was off just now," or "My balance was wrong."
These cheap "failure" data points constantly calibrate your judgment. Gradually, your sense of risk becomes sharper.

Point 3: Learn to Spot the "Perfect Wave"

Corresponding Concept: Look for Asymmetric Upside

The most powerful skill of an expert surfer is spotting the "perfect wave" among countless others — the one with the most potential to give them an epic ride. For them, the effort (a few paddles) and the reward (an amazing experience) are disproportionate.

For Naval, this is the ultimate goal of "learning risk": to find opportunities with an asymmetric payoff — where winning offers enormous gains, but losing costs little.

What's Asymmetric Upside? It means downside risk is small and known, but the upside potential is huge and unknown.
Examples:
- Writing a book or a column: What's the worst-case scenario? Spending months of your free time, with no one reading it. The best case? It could go viral, bringing you fame, wealth, and new opportunities. The downside (your time) is fixed; the upside is unlimited.
- Emailing 100 startups you admire offering free help: The worst outcome? No one replies, costing you a few days. The best outcome? One might invite you to join as a core member, and if it goes public, you achieve financial freedom.

Learning to identify these opportunities is the highest-level skill you "learn" from engaging with risk. Your judgment allows you to see the "wave of potential" that others miss.

To Summarize

So, when Naval says "risk can be learned," he's introducing a new worldview:

Don't see risk as an enemy to avoid, but as a natural force that can be harnessed through practice. By consistently making small attempts where the downside is limited, we accumulate experience, train our judgment, and ultimately identify and seize those enormous opportunities with asymmetric upside.

Put simply, he wants us to transform from gamblers relying on luck into surfers relying on skill and judgment. And this transformation process itself is the "learning."