Is the emergence of these "bulldozers" accidental, or an inevitable outcome of historical development?

Hi, that's a particularly great question—deep and fascinating. It's not just a historical question; it feels more like a philosophical one. I'll try to explain my perspective in plain language, hoping it helps clarify things for you.

When you mention these "bulldozers," I'm guessing you don't mean the literal ones on construction sites, but rather those massive forces—like the Industrial Revolution, the Internet, and globalization—that raze the old world to the ground and build an entirely new one in its place, right?

To answer this question, we can't simply say it's "accidental" or "inevitable." These are like two sides of the same coin—neither is complete without the other.

First, the "Inevitable" Side: The River of History Flows Eastward

Think of historical development as a great river whose ultimate goal is to flow into the sea. This "flow towards the sea" represents the inevitable current of history.

Why inevitable? Because there are fundamental driving forces at play that never change:

People Strive for Improvement: We humans have an innate drive to seek a better, more comfortable, and less laborious life. From drilling wood for fire to using a lighter, from running to deliver messages to sending texts—this pursuit of efficiency and convenience is eternal. As long as this drive exists, technology will inevitably advance, and social structures will inevitably change to adapt to it.
"Information" Wants Freedom: Ideas, techniques, and knowledge inherently want to spread wider and faster. From oral traditions, to the invention of paper and the printing press, to today's internet, all were created to enable smoother information flow. The faster information flows, the easier it is to spark innovation, accelerating societal change.
The Formation of a Global Village: Whenever transportation and communication technology allow, different human communities inevitably connect, trade, and exchange. This process may have twists and turns (like wars or trade barriers), but in the long run, the trend towards forming an integrated world is unstoppable. This is the logic behind the label "The World is Flat."

So, from this perspective, even if James Watt hadn't existed, a "Watt Zhang" or "Watt Li" might have improved the steam engine around the same time. Even without Tim Berners-Lee, someone else in that era, building on existing technologies (computers, networks), would likely have created something like the World Wide Web.

The emergence of the "bulldozer" is the inevitable result carved out by the flow of history's great river. Because the river water (humanity's fundamental needs) must flow downstream. When the old riverbed (old social structures and production methods) becomes clogged or inadequate, the river water inevitably gathers force to carve out a new, wider path.

Now, the "Accidental" Side: How the River Bends Depends on the Rocks

While the river's ultimate flow to the sea is inevitable, the specific twists, bends, or waterfalls along the way are accidental. A chance event, like a large rock in the riverbed, can drastically alter the river's local course.

The Arrival of Key Individuals: Newton's apple (even if legendary), Einstein's theory of relativity, Jobs' obsession with aesthetics... the flashes of insight from these geniuses, or a single critical decision by a key figure, are highly accidental. They are like people who, at precisely the right time and place, handed the "bulldozer" its crucial ignition key. If someone else had been there, the "bulldozer" might have looked very different, or taken years longer to start.
Specific Event Triggers: A war, an economic crisis, or even a plague can act as catalysts or obstacles for history. For example, the US-Soviet rivalry during the Cold War dramatically accelerated space technology and the proto-internet (ARPANET). This is a classic case of an accidental event (the Cold War) speeding up an inevitable trend (the development of information technology). Without this decades-long standoff, the internet might have emerged differently, at a different time.
Cultural and Geographic Nuances: Why did the Industrial Revolution start in Britain, not elsewhere? It hinged on a confluence of "accidental" factors: the Glorious Revolution, patent laws, coal resources, and island geography. These specific conditions didn't simultaneously align elsewhere, so the world-changing "super bulldozer" of the Industrial Revolution happened to roll out of Britain's "garage."

So, you see, the specific form the "bulldozer" takes, when and where it appears, and who operates it, is filled with randomness.

Conclusion: The Path of Inevitability is Paved with Innumerable Accidents

Therefore, my perspective is:

The emergence of a "bulldozer" is the inevitable outcome of historical development, but how it manifests itself—its specific form, timing, and place of emergence—is an accident.

To use an analogy:

Inevitability dictates that we must eat when we are hungry.
Accident decides whether we eat rice, noodles, or a burger for lunch today.

So it is with historical progress. When human society reaches a certain point—where productive forces are insufficient, information flow is blocked, contradictions in the old system intensify... these problems will inevitably accumulate until they necessitate a force for change (a bulldozer) to resolve them.

However, whether this force manifests as the steam-powered bulldozer of the "Industrial Revolution" or the networked bulldozer of the "Information Revolution" is determined by countless accidental historical moments, individuals, and choices.

We are each like drops of water in history's great river, swept along by the current. Yet, in a given instant, the confluence of countless drops can redirect a small stretch of the riverbed. Understanding this might help us view societal changes today with less anxiety and more composure. We are both the products of history and its creators.