Is Bitcoin price volatility a weakness in its value proposition or a natural market outcome?
It's a two-sided coin: both a weakness and an inevitable outcome of a natural developmental stage.
We can think of it like the stock of a high-tech company that's only been public for a few years, such as early Tesla.
Why is it a "natural outcome"?
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Too new, no "benchmark": Bitcoin has only been around for a little over a decade. Compared to gold, which has existed for hundreds or thousands of years, or stock markets that are centuries old, it's still a "school kid." There's no unified consensus on its true value. Some believe it's the digital gold of the future, worth a fortune; others think it's just a string of code, worthless. This huge divergence in opinion naturally leads to wild price swings at the slightest disturbance.
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Small market, big waves: Imagine a small pond versus a large lake. Throwing a stone into a pond can create huge waves, but throwing the same stone into a large lake might only cause a few ripples. The global capital market is the large lake, and Bitcoin's total market capitalization is that small pond. When large companies or whales want to buy or sell, it has a significant impact on the price, leading to extreme volatility.
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Emotional market, driven by sentiment: Many people currently buying and selling Bitcoin are driven by speculative or ideological emotions. When there's good news (e.g., a major company announces support), everyone rushes in; when there's negative news (e.g., a country announces stricter regulations), panic selling ensues. The market is highly emotional, and prices naturally go on a roller coaster ride.
Why is it also a "weakness in value support"?
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Inconvenient as "money": If you buy a coffee today for 0.0001 Bitcoin, you might think it cost you 30 yuan. If Bitcoin's price halves tomorrow, you'd look back and realize you effectively paid 60 yuan for that coffee, which would certainly be frustrating. This extreme volatility makes it difficult to use as a daily payment tool. No one wants to use an unstable asset to buy and sell goods.
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Unsettling as "gold": Many buy Bitcoin hoping to use it as "digital gold" for wealth preservation and appreciation, and as a hedge against inflation. However, gold's price is relatively stable; if you buy it today and put it in a safe, it's highly unlikely to have plummeted beyond recognition next year. Bitcoin is different; it could drop by half in a single month. For those seeking asset "safety," the risk is too high, and it's too much for the faint of heart.
In summary:
You can understand it this way: Bitcoin is currently like a "talented teenager" with immense potential. Because it's young and its future is uncertain, its personality is very unstable, sometimes ecstatic, sometimes furious (high price volatility). This is a natural characteristic of its growth stage.
However, this unstable personality makes it struggle when it tries to play the role of a "mature and stable" currency (for payments) or a "trustworthy" store of value (like gold), constituting its fatal weakness at this stage.
Many supporters believe that with time, as more people and institutions accept it, and its "market" grows larger, its personality will gradually stabilize, and volatility will decrease. But at least for now, this immense volatility is its most distinctive feature and a double-edged sword.