Why does Bitcoin's 'halving narrative' consistently reinforce its value belief?

Okay, let's talk about this, and I'll try to explain it in simple terms.

You can imagine Bitcoin as a kind of digital gold. The total amount of gold in the world is limited; the more you mine, the less there is, and the harder it gets to find. Bitcoin is similar: its total supply is hardcoded at 21 million, not one more.

So, how do new Bitcoins come into existence? Through "mining." There are many "miners" around the world who use powerful computers (mining rigs) to solve complex mathematical problems. Whoever solves it first gets some newly minted Bitcoins as a reward. This process happens approximately every 10 minutes.

Now, here comes the crucial "halving."

Bitcoin's creator (a mysterious figure known as "Satoshi Nakamoto") set an unchangeable rule in the code: approximately every four years, the reward miners receive for successfully mining a block is automatically cut in half.

For example, in the beginning, mining a block rewarded 50 Bitcoins; The first halving in 2012 reduced the reward to 25; The second halving in 2016 reduced it to 12.5; The third halving in 2020 reduced it to 6.25; The fourth halving in 2024 reduced it to 3.125... And so on, until around 2140, when all Bitcoins will have been mined.

Now that we understand what "halving" is, let's look at why this event continuously strengthens people's "faith" in Bitcoin.

1. The Ultimate Expression of "Scarcity Drives Value"

This is the most crucial point. Halving directly means that the rate at which new Bitcoins are "issued" slows down.

Supply tap is tightened: Imagine a product that is already limited edition. Now you're told that its future production rate will be cut in half. Fewer new items will enter the market. If you still want one, won't you have to pay a higher price to buy it from someone who already owns it? Halving has this exact effect; it severely restricts the supply.
Contrast with real-world money: This is the opposite of the money we usually use (like RMB or USD). Central banks can decide to print more money based on economic conditions. When there's more money, its purchasing power might decrease, which is what we call "inflation" or "money losing its value." Bitcoin's "four-year, halving production" rule is written in its code, and no one can change it. This certainty and increasing scarcity make many people believe it's more "value-preserving" than fiat currency.

2. A Predictable "Carnival"

Halving is not just a technical event; it's more like a global, cyclical "storytelling session" or a "festival."

Creates predictable expectations: Because the timing of the halving is roughly predictable, as it approaches, media, analysts, and crypto enthusiasts worldwide start discussing it. People look back at history: "See, after the previous halvings, Bitcoin's price saw a significant surge!" This historical experience creates a strong psychological hint and market expectation.
Self-fulfilling prophecy: What happens when everyone expects the price to rise after a halving? Many choose to buy before or shortly after the halving, anticipating appreciation. This buying behavior itself drives up demand, which then genuinely pushes the price higher. This creates a cycle where "because we believe it will rise, we buy it, and as a result, it actually rises." The more often this story is told, the more people believe it.

3. A "Stress Test" for Miners and a "Health Certificate" for the System

Each halving is a "major test" for miners. Their income is directly cut in half. If the price of Bitcoin doesn't rise, many inefficient miners will shut down and exit due to high costs.

Filters out the strong: Miners who can withstand the halving are usually the "elite forces" with more efficient machines and cheaper electricity. This makes the entire Bitcoin network more robust and efficient.
Proves the system's vitality: After each halving, despite some miners exiting, the Bitcoin network has not collapsed; instead, it has transitioned smoothly. This itself is an excellent demonstration of its decentralization and strong vitality. It tells the world: "Look, even with halved rewards, this system can still operate steadily."

So, to summarize:

The Bitcoin halving narrative acts like a three-in-one super engine:

Economic Engine (Scarcity): Mathematical code ensures it becomes increasingly scarce, which is the underlying logic of its value.
Psychological Engine (Storytelling): It creates an exciting, global topic every four years, continuously attracting new attention and capital, forming a self-fulfilling expectation of price increases.
Technical Engine (Network Robustness): It acts like a series of trials by fire, making the entire system stronger and increasing people's confidence in its long-term existence.

These three combined form a very powerful cycle of value belief. Each halving, this story is retold, and each time it has been validated as "correct" by the market (so far). As a result, more and more people believe in this story, and their faith becomes increasingly firm.