A comparison of Japanese whisky and aged Scotch whisky in the collector's market?

Let me put it this way: you can imagine the collecting market for Japanese whisky and Scotch whisky as two different types of stocks in the stock market: one is a hot tech stock, and the other is a stable blue-chip stock.

Japanese Whisky: The Hot Commodity, Like a 'Tech Stock'

Japanese whisky's rise in the collecting market has actually only happened in the last decade or so. Why is it so popular? There are several key points:

1. 'Artificial' Scarcity: This is the most crucial point. During the 1980s and 90s, when Japan's economic bubble burst, whisky sales plummeted domestically. Many distilleries either cut production or closed down entirely. This meant that very, very little aged whisky (e.g., 18, 25, 30 years old) was laid down during that period. Then, after 2010, Japanese whisky suddenly started winning international awards left and right, and the whole world rushed to buy it. Distilleries then realized: "Oh no, we have nothing to sell!" Scarcity drives up value, and prices skyrocketed. Aged expressions from brands like Yamazaki, Hakushu, and Hibiki are now astronomically expensive.

2. Exquisite Craftsmanship and Flavor: You know how the Japanese approach things – with that 'artisan spirit,' striving for perfection. Their blending techniques are incredibly sophisticated, resulting in flavors that are exceptionally delicate, balanced, and possess a certain Eastern Zen quality. This unique flavor profile captivated many who weren't previously whisky drinkers, opening up the market significantly.

3. Amplified Investment Value: Due to its scarcity and award-winning status, Japanese whisky transformed into an investment commodity. Many buy it not to drink, but to wait for its value to appreciate. Especially whiskies from now-closed distilleries like Karuizawa, their bottles are like antiques – every one consumed means one less in existence. Their prices are outrageously high, making them legends in the collecting world.

In summary, the Japanese whisky market: It's extremely hot, with high price volatility, much like a roller coaster. If you pick correctly, you might see your investment multiply several times in the short term, but there's also a certain bubble risk. Many newly released NAS (No Age Statement) Japanese whiskies are not cheap, but their collectible value is questionable. The entire collecting market is primarily propped up by aged and discontinued expressions.

Old Scotch Whisky: Deep Heritage, Like a 'Blue-Chip Stock'

Scotland is the birthplace of whisky, boasting hundreds of years of history and a very rich heritage. Compared to Japanese whisky, its collecting market operates on a different logic:

1. Truly 'Old' and 'Extinct': Collecting Scotch whisky is about embracing a genuine sense of 'history.' Its sheer volume is immense, with hundreds of distilleries, so not just any bottle of Scotch holds collectible value. Collectors primarily covet two categories:

   • Ultra-High Age Statements: Such as 40, 50 years old, or even older whiskies. These bottles are themselves works of art crafted by time, with extremely limited quantities in existence.
   • 'Silent Stills' (Lost Distilleries): Similar to Karuizawa, many distilleries in Scotland have also closed down throughout history, such as Port Ellen, Brora, and Rosebank (though some have recent revival plans, their old bottlings remain legendary). The remaining stock from these distilleries is referred to as 'lost flavors,' highly sought after by collectors, with prices remaining very stable and consistently rising.

2. Mature and Rational Market: The Scotch whisky market has been developing for decades and is very mature. Prices don't skyrocket overnight like Japanese whisky; instead, they appreciate steadily each year, much like a quality asset. It doesn't have as large a bubble because its value is supported by deep history and a vast enthusiast base.

3. Diverse Styles, Something for Everyone: Scotland boasts various regions – Islay's peaty notes, Speyside's floral and fruity aromas... there's always something to suit your palate. Collectors can focus on systematic collecting within a specific distillery or region based on their taste preferences, which adds to the enjoyment.

In summary, the Scotch whisky market: It's like a stable long-term investment. It won't make you rich overnight, but it also won't leave you empty-handed. Its value is time-tested and it's a true hard currency. Buying old Scotch is more like investing in a piece of history, with lower risk and suitability for long-term holding.

A Direct Comparison

So, how do you choose?

If you have spare cash, enjoy chasing trends, and love that heart-pounding thrill, then keeping an eye on the Japanese whisky market can be very exciting. But do your homework and don't be swayed by some of the newer No Age Statement releases.

If you're more of a steady investor looking for a hobby that can weather market cycles, then delving into Scotland's 'silent stills' and ultra-high age statement whiskies will bring you more reliable returns and enjoyment.

Ultimately, when it comes to collecting, what you personally enjoy matters most. After all, the best whisky is always the one you open and share with friends.