How does he view the influence of media and analyst opinions on investment decisions?
Alright, let's discuss this topic. If you were to ask Graham, or open his book The Intelligent Investor, what would he think of the overwhelming financial news and analyst reports today?
My understanding is that he would tell you this: "Don't give it too much weight."
Graham viewed these things as coming from an emotionally volatile "Mr. Market."
The Core Idea: The Media and Analysts Loudspeakers for "Mr. Market"
Imagine you have a business partner named "Mr. Market." Every day, he comes to you offering a price, either wanting to buy your share of the business or sell you his share.
But this "Mr. Market" has a problem: He's extremely moody.
- When the market is good and the news is all sunshine and rainbows, he becomes elated, rushing to you saying: "Goodness, our business is a gold mine for the future! I'm willing to pay a sky-high price for your shares!"
- When the market is bad and the news is filled with gloom and doom, he becomes despondent, pleading with you: "It's over, our business is going bankrupt! Please, I beg you, buy my shares at a fire-sale price!"
And the media and analysts are essentially Mr. Market's megaphone turned up to maximum volume. When Mr. Market is happy, they amplify the enthusiasm; when he's depressed, they amplify the pessimism. They magnify the market's short-term emotional swings.
Graham would tell you, as an intelligent investor, what should you do?
You should essentially ignore Mr. Market's daily ramblings. You only need to calmly buy shares when he's in the depths of despair, willing to sell them to you at fire-sale prices; and sell shares to him elegantly when he's euphoric, willing to buy them from you at sky-high prices.
You use his moods to your advantage, rather than being controlled by them.
Specifically, Graham's attitude breaks down into these points:
1. Think Independently, Resist "Following the Herd"
The media and analysts excel at creating "consensus." When all reports hail a certain sector as the next big thing, and all the news touts a particular stock, herd mentality kicks in, and everyone rushes in.
Graham believed that true investment opportunities are often hidden in places that receive no attention, or are even universally scorned. When your decisions are based on your own research and judgment, rather than the media's proclaimed "hot spots," you are truly embarking on the path of value investing. The essence of "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful" captures this philosophy perfectly.
2. Focus on Facts, Not Opinions
- What are facts? These are a company's financial statements (like actual profits and debts), its business model, and its product competitiveness. These can be ascertained through research and analysis; they are objective.
- What are opinions? These are analysts' "Buy/Sell/Neutral" ratings, their predicted "target prices," or pronouncements in media articles like "Stock X is set to soar!" These are subjective predictions and viewpoints.
Graham would tell you to focus 99% of your energy on studying the "facts." The true worth of a company—its intrinsic value—should be calculated based on its actual business fundamentals, not some analyst's shouted target price.
It's like buying groceries: you should care about what the produce itself is worth, not listen to someone next to you yelling about how much its price will jump tomorrow.
3. Analysts Aren't Your Friends; They Have Their Own Agendas Too
Graham would remind you to maintain a healthy skepticism. Analysts are human; they have careers to maintain and face various pressures:
- Conflicts of Interest: The analyst's brokerage firm might have investment banking relationships with the company they cover. Would they dare issue a negative rating?
- Short-Term Pressure: If a stock surges sharply in the short term, and they have a "Sell" rating, they look foolish. Consequently, they often tend to follow the prevailing trend.
- Information Lag: By the time an analyst report is published, much of the information may already be reflected in the stock price.
Therefore, their opinions can be one source of reference information, but they absolutely cannot be the sole basis for your investment decisions.
To Summarize
Graham would tell you:
The viewpoints of the media and analysts are an excellent tool for gauging market sentiment, but they are terrible guides for investment decisions.
You can use them to sense the current "temperature" of the market – is it overheating or overly cold? But this is like checking the weather forecast; it helps you decide what to wear before heading out, but it doesn't determine where you go or what you do today.
Your true destination (what to buy, what to sell, when to act) must be decided by a map you've drawn yourself – based on your independent research and value judgments. In Graham's world, an investor is a "scoring machine" focused on weighing intrinsic value, not a "voting machine" swayed by popularity. The media and analysts are all about "voting"; your job is to calmly measure a company's true weight.