Amidst geopolitical tensions (e.g., China-US relations), is the 'decoupling' of technology and supply chains creating new barriers?

Okay, let's dive into this topic.

The answer is simple, yet its implications are profound: Yes, undoubtedly, technology and supply chain "decoupling" is creating new, and increasingly higher, barriers.

We can understand this with a simple metaphor.

In the Past, We Played with a "Global Edition" LEGO Set

Imagine that, over the past two or three decades, the world was like a massive LEGO club.

• The US was responsible for designing the coolest LEGO blueprints (e.g., Apple iPhone designs, chip architectures).
• Germany and Japan were responsible for making the most precise LEGO molds and production machines (e.g., photolithography machines).
• South Korea and Taiwan were responsible for manufacturing the most critical and complex specialized LEGO bricks (e.g., high-end chips).
• Mainland China boasted the largest and most skillful group of LEGO builders, capable of assembling thousands of bricks into final models (e.g., assembling phones, computers) with incredible efficiency and low cost.
• Finally, the assembled LEGO models were sold to enthusiasts worldwide.

This is what Thomas Friedman called "the world is flat." Everyone worked within one system, each doing the part they excelled at – maximizing efficiency, minimizing costs, ultimately delivering good, affordable products to consumers.

Now, Some Want to "Split Up" and Play with Their Own LEGO

The situation now is that the club's two biggest players – the US and China – no longer trust each other, for various reasons (geopolitics, national security, economic competition).

• The US thinks: "What if China stops letting me use those core LEGO bricks (chips), or uses my blueprints to build even better models? No, I need to build my own factories, make my own bricks, and stop giving China access to the most critical blueprints and tools."
• China thinks: "The blueprints are yours, the tools are yours, and now the most crucial bricks aren't sold to me anymore. Aren't I being 'strangled'? No, I also need to figure out how to design blueprints, build tools, and produce bricks myself – basically, I can't depend on you anymore."

Thus, "decoupling" begins. Players stop sharing the global LEGO set and start setting up their own domains, trying to build their own complete, independent LEGO ecosystems.

What New Barriers is "Decoupling" Creating?

This "splitting up" directly creates three types of visible and invisible barriers.

1. The Tech Wall

   • Manifestation: It's like two incompatible LEGO sets. In the U.S.-led system, they use technology and chips conforming to A-standards; in the China-led system, they are striving to develop technology and chips based on B-standards. In the future, we might see an app designed in the US fail to run properly on Chinese phone systems; or an IoT device reliant on Chinese 5G technology becoming a "brick" in parts of Europe.
   • Consequences: Technology is no longer a universal language; it fragments into different "dialect zones." Innovations cannot flow freely, potentially slowing global technological progress. For ordinary people, traveling or working abroad will mean navigating different digital ecosystems, adding hassle.

2. The Supply Chain Wall

   • Manifestation: The once highly efficient global LEGO factory is being dismantled. The US is pushing companies to move production lines from China to "friendly nations" like Mexico, Vietnam, and India (known as "friend-shoring"). China emphasizes "internal circulation," striving to build a complete domestic supply chain immune to external disruption.
   • Consequences: It's like abandoning a large, well-stocked, affordable supermarket to insist on growing everything in your own backyard. The inevitable results:
     • Higher Costs: Huge investments are needed to build new factories and train workers in new locations. These costs will ultimately be reflected in the prices of goods. Our phones, computers, and cars could all become more expensive.
     • Lower Efficiency: New supply chains take time to mature and are far less smooth than established systems. Risks of shortages and delays also increase.

3. The Trust & Talent Wall

   • Manifestation: This is an invisible barrier. Previously, scientists, engineers, and students from the US and China frequently exchanged ideas, jointly driving technological progress. Now, academic collaboration is restricted, student visas are harder to obtain, and companies are more cautious about hiring talent with backgrounds from the other side.
   • Consequences: The free flow of ideas and talent is the lifeblood of innovation. When this flow is blocked, it not only deepens mutual distrust and misunderstanding but also limits humanity's collective ability to tackle shared challenges like climate change and disease.

Conclusion: The World is No Longer "Flat," It's "Spiky"

Therefore, technological "decoupling" is far more than a trade spat between two nations. Fundamentally, it is cutting up the flat network of global cooperation formed over the past few decades, reshaping it into several competing, walled-off domains – "small yards with high fences."

The concept of the "world is flat" is becoming outdated. The future world may look more like it's "Spiky". Globalization hasn't vanished, but it is no longer frictionless. Resources, technology, and wealth will likely be highly concentrated atop a few "peaks" (like Silicon Valley, the Yangtze River Delta), separated by deep "valleys" formed by technological incompatibility, supply chain fragmentation, and mutual distrust that are difficult to cross.

For us ordinary people, the most tangible impact may be this: The golden era of globalization we took for granted – characterized by affordable yet quality goods and abundant choices – may truly become a bygone era.