Regarding Friedman's predictions for the future, which ones have been confirmed and which ones have been disproven?

Ah, discussing Friedman feels like opening an "economics surprise box." Some things inside are genuinely worth applauding, while others simply make you shake your head. He was a force to be reckoned with—bold in thought and speech, whose influence spanned over half a century. Naturally, his "predictions" are a favorite topic of discussion.

As an ordinary person who has also read a few of his books, I'll try to break down in plain language which ones hit the mark and which ones... well, didn't quite pan out as expected.

Which predictions were proven correct, or became influential?

Friedman was like a rock star; his "greatest hits" arguably changed the "musical style" of the world economy.

1. The Root Cause of Inflation is the "Money Printer"

His Prediction: Friedman famously stated, "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon." His point was simple: don't just blame greedy businesses or unions demanding higher wages when prices soar. The root cause is the central bank printing too much money, flooding the market and making each unit worth less.
Reality: This one is practically enshrined as gospel. In the 1970s, the US and Europe were gripped by horrifying "stagflation" (stagnant growth + high inflation), which traditional economic theories couldn't explain. Friedman's theory hit the nail on the head. Later, Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker employed Friedman-esque "strong medicine," drastically tightening the money supply to forcefully bring down inflation. Though painful, it worked. Since then, central banks worldwide have made controlling the money supply a core mission. Looking at recent years, the global flood of money after the pandemic was followed by a wave of high inflation—further proof of his point.

2. "Floating Exchange Rates" Would Become the Norm

His Prediction: In his era, the "Bretton Woods system" dominated—essentially pegging the US dollar to gold and other currencies to the dollar, resulting in fixed exchange rates. Friedman argued this system was too rigid and was bound to collapse. He advocated freely convertible currencies with exchange rates floating freely, like stock prices.
Reality: In 1971, President Nixon severed the dollar's link to gold, and the Bretton Woods system indeed collapsed. We entered the era of floating exchange rates Friedman predicted. While this system has its own problems (like significant volatility), it has proven more flexible than the old one and endures to this day.

3. An "All-Volunteer Military" is Better Than the "Draft"

His Prediction: While not purely an economic issue, this showed his liberal philosophy. He argued that forcing young people into military service was inefficient and violated individual liberty. Making the military an attractive career, "hiring" soldiers with competitive pay and benefits, would yield a more professional and capable force.
Reality: In 1973, the US abolished the draft, switching entirely to an all-volunteer military. Today, most developed nations follow this model. Evidence shows that a professionalized military indeed boasts far superior training and combat effectiveness than one reliant on conscripts.

4. Praise for the Hong Kong Model (In a Way)

His Prediction: He hailed Hong Kong as the epitome of the "free market," attributing its success to minimal government intervention, low taxes, and free trade. He famously dedicated an episode of his documentary series "Free to Choose" to extolling Hong Kong.
Reality: From an economic growth perspective, he was partly right. Leveraging its status as a free port, Hong Kong achieved an economic miracle, becoming one of the "Four Asian Tigers." This model also profoundly influenced later economies, including China's reform and opening-up, which borrowed elements of it. However, we'll touch on the other side of this coin later.

Which predictions were proven wrong, or remain highly controversial?

Naturally, Friedman wasn't infallible; sometimes he misjudged or oversimplified things.

1. The Assumption that "Money Velocity is Stable" is Flawed

His Prediction: His monetary theory relied heavily on the key premise that "the velocity of money" (simply, how fast money changes hands in the economy) is stable and predictable. Only then could the formula "controlling the money supply controls inflation" hold perfectly true.
Reality: This "velocity" proved highly unstable. Financial innovations (like credit cards, electronic payments, derivatives) made money movement incredibly complex and variable. During the 2008 financial crisis, hoarding cash caused velocity to plummet. Central banks discovered that even "flooding the market" with liquidity was far less effective at stimulating the economy than before. Consequently, central banks no longer rigidly fixate solely on the money supply.

2. Underestimating the Destructive Potential of "Completely Free Markets"

His Prediction: A staunch advocate of "small government, big markets," he believed markets possessed strong self-regulating abilities and that government intervention should be minimal, especially in finance. He was convinced deregulation unleashed dynamism.
Reality: The 2008 Global Financial Crisis delivered a resounding rebuttal. Excessive deregulation in areas like financial derivatives allowed Wall Street's greed to run unchecked, culminating in a worldwide catastrophe. This crisis showed that an entirely unfettered market, particularly financial markets, can become self-destructive. Markets need the "invisible hand," but they also need "visible rules" to prevent them from derailing.

3. An Overly Rosy and Simplistic View of the Hong Kong Model

His Prediction: He focused largely on Hong Kong's economic prosperity while neglecting or failing to foresee underlying social issues.
Reality: Under the "positive non-interventionism" policy, Hong Kong developed extreme wealth inequality, astronomically high housing prices, and immense pressure on ordinary citizens. This demonstrates that a purely free market can come at the cost of social equity and the well-being of the lower strata. Moreover, Friedman underestimated the extent to which Hong Kong's prosperity relied on its unique geopolitical role as a "super-connector" between mainland China and the world. Changes to this role inevitably impact its economic model.

To Summarize

You can think of Friedman as a great "switchman of economic theory." When the world economic train seemed destined for the derailed track of "stagflation" under "Keynesianism" (which favors government intervention), he pulled the switch, redirecting it onto the "free market" and "monetarist" track, enabling the economy to regain speed.

However, this track isn't perfect. Pushing it too hard risks derailments like widening inequality and financial instability.

So, his predictions: the ones that were right profoundly changed the world; the ones that were wrong offer equally profound warnings. Our lives today are largely shaped within the world framework he envisioned and influenced.