Why did Naval say, "Judgment accumulates through experience and learning"?

Alright, let's discuss Naval's point. This question is actually fundamental. Understanding it means grasping one of the essentials of Naval's philosophy.

Why Does Naval Say "Judgment Is Accumulated Through Experience and Learning"?

Think of this statement as a formula: High-Quality Judgment = Deep Learning + Hands-On Experience.

These two are inseparable. They are like a person's two legs. Lose one, and you'll just walk in circles, unable to get far.

Let's break it down with a familiar example: learning to cook.

1. Learning: "Reading the Recipe, Studying the Theory"

Imagine someone who's never cooked before wants to make "Braised Pork Belly (Hong Shao Rou)".

What is learning?
- They would first look at a recipe or watch a cooking video. This is learning.
- The recipe tells them: what ingredients are needed (pork belly, rock sugar, dark soy sauce, ginger, etc.), what each step is (blanching, caramelizing the sugar, stewing...), how to control the heat, and approximately how long it takes.
- These are the knowledge and frameworks summarized by predecessors. Through learning, you effectively "stand on the shoulders of giants," quickly gaining patterns others spent significant time discovering. You don't need to personally trial-and-error 100 times to learn the soy sauce-to-sugar ratio.
What if you only learn but never practice?
- They become an "armchair chef." They can eloquently discuss the theory, history, and different schools of thought on braised pork belly. But ask them to actually cook it, and they'll likely burn the sugar or make the meat tough. Because theory is standardized, but reality is fluid (e.g., your pot heats quickly, the meat you bought is extra fatty).

This is what Naval means by learning. It gives you a basic "map" and "operating manual," preventing you from flailing around aimlessly. It significantly improves your efficiency and avoids making low-level mistakes others have already made.

2. Experience: "Getting Hands-On in the Kitchen, Feeling the Heat"

Now, this person starts cooking.

What is experience?
- The first time they caramelize the sugar, the heat is too high, the sugar burns, and it tastes bitter. This is a failure experience.
- The second time, carefully using low heat, they achieve a perfect caramel color. This is a success experience.
- While stewing, the recipe says 60 minutes, but they find their meat turns tender in 45 minutes in their pot. They remember to turn off the heat earlier next time. This is another experience-based adjustment to reality.
What if you rely only on experience without learning?
- They might experiment blindly for a long time, wasting lots of ingredients, before stumbling upon the realization that "sugar + soy sauce" tastes great. They might never know the "blanching" step removes gaminess and impurities, so their dish always has an off-flavor.
- Their progress would be very slow, and their cooking skills would be inconsistent – sometimes good, sometimes bad – because they lack a theoretical framework to guide them, relying only on "feeling" and "luck."

This is what Naval means by experience. It is the "muscle memory" and "intuition" you gain from repeated trial-and-error, hitting walls, and adjusting in the real world. Books can't give you this sensation. Mistakes are the "tuition" you pay to gain valuable experience.

Combining Both is Key

Now, let's see how "learning" and "experience" work together:

An excellent chef understands cooking theory (learning) and has cooked thousands of times (experience).

When they get a new piece of meat, their knowledge base (learning) tells them its characteristics and suitable cooking methods.
Simultaneously, their muscle memory and intuition (experience) tell them that this particular piece is leaner, requiring slightly lower heat and shorter cooking time to ensure it doesn't dry out.

This is judgment.

Judgment doesn't appear out of thin air. It's an almost instinctive ability internalized by constantly calibrating the route using "experience" as the navigator on the "map" provided by "learning," optimizing choices along the way.

So, Naval's meaning is actually straightforward:

You can't just be a bookworm who only reads (just learning). Nor can you be a reckless doer who only labors without reflection or learning from experiences (just experience).

You need to constantly learn new knowledge and models, then bravely go out to practice and take risks. In practice, use the knowledge you've learned to guide your actions. Then, use the outcomes of those actions to verify and refine your knowledge.

The more cycles of this loop you complete, the more valuable your mistakes become, and the more precise and valuable your judgment grows.

In today's world, leverage (like capital, code, media) is hugely amplified. One good judgment might yield hundredfold or thousandfold returns; one bad judgment might wipe you out instantly. This is why Naval places such importance on "judgment."