As time progresses, does a market's "long tail" become longer and thicker, or does it shrink?

Hello, I'd like to share my perspective on this question. It's actually quite an fascinating topic because it's not something that can be answered with a simple "yes" or "no."

One way to think about it is imagining a bustling bazaar.

First, what exactly is "the long tail"?

Imagine any market has two types of products:

The Head: These are the blockbusters. Think the latest iPhone, the Avengers movie playing in theaters, or the bestsellers prominently displayed in bookstores. They have massive demand and represent the market's mainstream.
The Tail: These are the relatively niche, obscure items. For example, a specialized book on Roman history published a decade ago, an obscure Icelandic film, or a keyboard designed specifically for left-handed people. The demand for any single item is minuscule, but when you add up all these niche demands, the collective volume can be astonishingly large.

"The long tail" refers precisely to this extended "tail" composed of countless niche demands.

(An illustration could show this - the tall "head" on the left represents hits, while the flatter yet very long stretch to the right represents the long tail market.)

The Overall Trend: The Long Tail is Becoming Longer and Thicker

In most cases, the answer is yes, the tail is getting longer and thicker. Why? Primarily due to three catalysts:

1. Democratization of Production Tools (Making the Tail "Longer")

The Past: Publishing a book required navigating layers of publisher approvals, coupled with high printing costs. No publisher would risk printing a book that might only sell a few dozen copies. Filmmaking? Forget it – the costs were astronomical.
Now: Thanks to social media platforms, print-on-demand services, 3D printing, short-video apps, and more, anyone can create and produce at low cost. A history enthusiast can write an ebook and sell it online; a craftsperson can list handmade accessories on an e-commerce platform; a gamer can livestream their playthrough of a niche game.
Result: This leads to more types of niche, personalized products and services. Consequently, the tail naturally "lengthens".

2. Infinite Distribution Channels (Making the Tail "Visible")

The Past: Physical shelves have finite space. A bookstore couldn't afford to stock a niche book for just a handful of potential customers, wasting valuable display real estate. A supermarket wouldn't stock a sauce only a small minority might buy.
Now: The Internet shatters physical limitations. Amazon and Taobao have infinite virtual shelves; Netflix and Spotify's libraries can house vast quantities of non-mainstream content.
Result: These niche items now have platforms for display and sale. They are no longer buried treasure but discoverable commodities.

3. Intelligence of Recommendation Algorithms (Making the Tail "Thicker")

The Past: How did you find things you liked? Through friends, charts, or ads – channels almost exclusively pointing towards "head" blockbusters.
Now: Major platforms all employ recommendation algorithms. Watch a video about "Ming dynasty carpentry" on Bilibili, and it immediately suggests more obscure historical content. Listen to a song by an indie band, and your music app generates a "You Might Also Like" playlist filled with similar artists.
Result: Algorithms become the bridge connecting "you with niche interests" and "it, the niche product". They enable more people to discover and purchase these long tail items, potentially increasing sales volume for each niche product by a small margin. Countless minor increases accumulate, making the entire tail "thicker".

However! There's Another Side: The Long Tail Can Also Face Shrinkage Pressure

While growth is the overall trend, the long tail can still be squeezed under certain conditions.

1. The "Matthew Effect" & The Algorithm Trap

Algorithms, while adept at unearthing the tail, can also amplify what's already popular. A hit video or product, boosted by strong data, gets pushed to more users by the platform, creating a positive feedback loop that sucks up most traffic and attention, leaving less for the "tail." This is the "winner takes all" effect.

2. Attention is a Scarce Resource

Our capacity to absorb information daily is limited. When faced with overwhelming choice, many people experience "decision fatigue," tending to default to well-known, "safe" head products to save decision-making time and effort. Plagued by "analysis paralysis" browsing thousands of movies, you might just pick the latest heavily-marketed Hollywood blockbuster anyway.

3. Platform Business Strategy

Platforms (e.g., e-commerce sites, video platforms) need profitability. They might realize promoting a few head blockbusters yields far higher returns than laboriously pushing countless niche products. Consequently, they may deliberately skew traffic distribution towards the "head," thereby stifling the growth of the "tail."

Conclusion: An Ongoing Tug-of-War

So, back to the original question: Over time, what happens to a market's "long tail"?

Overall, the fundamental logic of technological advancement (production, distribution, recommendation) continuously pulls the "tail" longer and thicker. This is an irreversible macro trend.

However, it's not a smooth, obstacle-free path. Along the way, it constantly engages in a tug-of-war with the "winner-takes-all Matthew Effect," "users' limited attention spans," and "platform business models."

You can understand it like this:

Technology makes the tail's "potential" immense.
But the eventual "thickness" of the tail still depends on how human factors and commerce navigate this vast landscape of possibilities.

Therefore, as an average consumer, you'll find your choices multiplying; and as an entrepreneur, this means entirely new opportunities are perpetually emerging within niche and vertical fields.