Have we truly learned lessons from history?

This is a very interesting, and also a very poignant, question.

If I could only answer in one sentence, my reply would be: We learn some things, but we forget them even faster.

Sounds contradictory, right? Let me break it down for you.

Why Do We Always Stumble in the "Same Place"?

You can think of it like losing weight. Everyone knows the secret to weight loss is "eat less, exercise more"—it's a "historical lesson" written in textbooks. But why do so many people regain the weight?

1. Human Greed and Fear Are Hardwired into Our Genes Financial markets are essentially made up of people. When the market is booming and everyone is making money, your rationality tells you "there's risk," but your greed says, "If you don't get in now, you'll miss out!" or "This time it's different!" This is what's called "irrational exuberance." Conversely, when a crisis hits and the market plummets, your rationality tells you, "This is a value trap, you should buy the dip," but your fear makes you "sell quickly, or you'll lose everything!" This cycle of chasing gains and cutting losses, driven by greed and fear, is the fundamental force behind every bubble and crash. This "bug" in human nature hasn't changed for centuries.

2. Memory's "Shelf Life" Is Too Short The generation that personally experienced the Great Depression of 1929 had a deep-seated reverence for risk. But their grandchildren, enjoying decades of post-war prosperity, couldn't truly grasp that pain. For them, the Great Depression was just a term in a history book. Similarly, many traders who entered the industry during the 2008 financial crisis might have been children then. Today, as they wield vast sums of money in the market, the warnings from veterans like "don't touch high-risk derivatives" sound like grandparents telling you to "wear more clothes"—a bit annoying, but not taken to heart. Once the wound heals, the pain is forgotten. Each generation has its "scars," but this memory is difficult to transmit across generations.

3. The Trap of "Old Wine in New Bottles" History doesn't repeat itself exactly, but it often rhymes. In the 17th century, the Dutch speculated on tulips; in 2000, people speculated on internet stocks; in 2008, on subprime mortgages; today, on various cryptocurrencies... You see, the "protagonists" are different each time, and the technologies and terms become increasingly complex (what with CDOs, DeFi...). This gives people an excellent excuse: "This time it's really different! The old rules don't apply!" But peel back these flashy exteriors, and the core is still the same old story: using excessive leverage to chase an overhyped asset.

But Have We Really Learned Nothing? Not Entirely.

To say we've made no progress at all would be unfair. We're more like masters of "mending the fold after the sheep are lost."

1. We Have "Safety Nets" and "Firewalls" After every major crisis, we apply some "patches."

   • After the 1929 Great Depression, the U.S. established the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to regulate markets and created the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to prevent depositors from losing their money if banks failed.
   • After the 2008 financial crisis, banks globally were required to increase their capital adequacy ratios (meaning, keep more reserves instead of lending everything out) and undergo "stress tests" to simulate extreme scenarios and see if banks would collapse.

   These systems are like "fuses" and "fire sprinklers" installed in the financial system. They can't guarantee that a fire won't start, but they can prevent the entire building from burning down if one does.

2. The Speed and Tools for "Firefighting" Have Upgraded Compare 1929 and 2008, and you'll notice a huge difference. After the 1929 crisis erupted, the government and central bank at the time reacted slowly, even adopting incorrect tightening policies, leading to a decade-long Great Depression. However, when Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008, the Federal Reserve and central banks worldwide acted almost immediately, injecting massive amounts of capital into the market (quantitative easing), stopping at nothing to prevent systemic collapse. In 2020, during the pandemic shock, this reaction speed was even faster. It's like a doctor who, after seeing several heart attack patients, knows exactly what medicine and equipment to use the next time similar symptoms appear, instead of still flipping through a textbook.

Conclusion

So, back to the original question: Have we truly learned lessons from history?

My view is:

On the technical and institutional levels, we have learned. We have stronger regulatory tools and faster crisis response mechanisms. We strive to make the financial ship more robust, with more lifeboats.

But on the human nature level, it's hard for us to learn. Given the chance, we still can't resist driving the ship at full speed, crashing into those seemingly beautiful icebergs.

Perhaps the greatest lesson history teaches us is: We always forget the lessons history teaches us. What we can do is not to eliminate human greed (which is impossible), but to ensure that when greed gets out of control next time, our prepared "safety nets" can catch more people, preventing society as a whole from falling too hard.