Do the recent rise of trade protectionism and the wave of 'de-globalization' signify that the world is becoming 'rounder' or 'steeper'?

Sure, here is the translation:

Okay, that's a really insightful question. Using the terms "getting rounder" and "getting steeper" to describe the current state of the world is incredibly vivid. Let's skip the dense academic jargon and discuss this in plain language.

First, why did people say the "world is flat"?

This phrase gained popularity thanks to Thomas Friedman's famous book The World Is Flat. Think of it as the whole world being a vast, flat playground.

No Walls: Tariff barriers between countries diminished significantly. Doing business was like running from one end of the playground to the other – seamless.
Easy Communication: The internet and smartphones became ubiquitous. You could video call someone in America from China as if they were next door, with almost no delay or cost in transmitting information.
Movement was Fast: Container shipping made transporting goods extremely cheap. The cost to ship a T-shirt produced in Vietnam to Europe might even be less than your taxi fare downtown.

In this "flat" world, capital, information, goods, and (to some extent) talent could flow freely and cheaply across the globe. An American company could design in California, manufacture in China, and put its customer service centre in India. Everyone collaborated, achieving high efficiency and low costs. This was the golden age of globalization.

So, what changed now?

In recent years, you've surely felt the shift in the wind. Trade wars, technology embargoes, supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic... These events made people rethink whether the idea of a "flat world" was too idealistic.

It's like imagining that flat playground where everyone could play, but then realizing:

Some Players Break the Rules: Certain "players" were seen as exploiting the rules for gain without taking on the corresponding responsibilities.
Some Get Left Behind: Ordinary workers in some developed countries lost jobs as factories moved to lower-cost locations. Their lives didn't necessarily get better because the "world flattened."
The Playground Suddenly Feels Unsafe: A pandemic hit, and countries suddenly realized they couldn't even produce basic necessities like masks or ventilators domestically, relying heavily on others. This "putting all your eggs in one basket" vulnerability gave governments everywhere a major fright.

Consequently, governments started acting, leading to what you call protectionism and "deglobalization".

Is the world "getting rounder" or "getting steeper"?

My view is that both are happening, but "getting steeper" might more precisely capture the current sense of conflict.

1. The World is Getting Rounder

"Getting rounder" means we're rediscovering the importance of distance and differences.

The Earth was always round, with mountains and oceans. Saying it's "getting rounder" refers to the geographic, cultural, and national boundaries that globalization temporarily "flattened" becoming prominent again.

Geographical Distance is Back: Pandemic and geopolitical risks made businesses realize having factories thousands of miles away was too risky. Thus, "near-shoring" (relocating factories from Asia to Mexico) and "friend-shoring" (setting up factories in politically allied countries) gained traction. People started caring about who their "neighbors" were.
National Borders are Back: Brexit is a prime example. It essentially rebuilt a border between Britain and continental Europe. Countries are also emphasizing "national security" more – whether for food, energy, or technology – wanting to keep critical industries domestic.

"Getting rounder" feels more like a natural return, acknowledging that the world was never a homogeneous flat plane, but a globe composed of diverse cultures and competing national interests.

2. The World is Getting Steeper

"Getting steeper" goes further. It doesn't just acknowledge differences; it highlights artificially created barriers and inequalities.

Imagine piles of steep hills or trenches being dug artificially on that flat playground.

Tariffs are Like Hills: The US imposing high tariffs on Chinese goods is like piling steep mounds on the trade path – your goods cost more to "climb" over them.
Tech Sanctions Are Cliffs: Chip bans on specific companies (like Huawei) aren't just making the path steeper; they're digging literal cliffs blocking the way. This is "decoupling" – forcibly severing connections in critical areas.
Competition Became a "Climbing Race": Global competition now isn't about who runs fastest, but who can seize the "peak." In areas like AI, semiconductors, and new energy, countries are pouring money into their domestic champions to dominate the high end of supply chains. The rules changed from win-win cooperation to "zero-sum games" – for me, none for you.

Conclusion: A More Complex and Challenging World

So, in summary:

The world is "getting rounder" because we're recognizing that "fences" still exist in the global village. This is a correction to the previous hyper-globalization.
The world is "getting steeper" because major powers are actively and deliberately setting up obstacles for others while elevating their own position. This reflects the increasingly intense competition and confrontation.

You could say "rounder" is the natural state of a receding globalization tide, while "steeper" is the man-made result of major power rivalry.

For ordinary people, this "steeper" world means less certainty and more risk. Where we once shopped globally online with ease, we may face more tariffs and restrictions in the future. Where we could once rely on a single specialized skill for a lifetime, we may need constant learning to adapt to ever-shifting supply chain landscapes.

This is undoubtedly challenging. But it also reflects the world seeking a new equilibrium after undergoing dramatic transformation.