Thinking and Decision-Making
Latest Questions for Thinking and Decision-Making (359)
If we were to go back to 2007, how would one predict the iPhone's success probability using first principles?回到2007年，我们抛开所有“事后诸葛亮”的看法，只从最根本的逻辑，也就是“第一性原理”出发，来分析iPhone成功的可能性，其实脉络会非常清晰。
这事儿得从当时人们最本质的需求和当时手机的“蠢样”说起。
第一，先看屏幕和键盘的根本矛盾。
2007年，市面上最牛的手机是什么？诺基亚、摩托罗拉、黑莓。它们的共同点是：手机正面超过一半的面积，都被一块“死”的物理键盘占据了。
Okay, let's talk about this topic.
To put it plainly, "First Principles" might sound profound, but it's essentially a way of thinking that involves "getting to the root of things.
Certainly. Let's simplify this by imagining a top chef preparing a perfect dish for you.
Starting from first principles, what is "user experience"? Simply put, it's your complete feeling when using so...
Haha, that's an interesting question. I think it can be understood this way:
Imagine what kind of phones we used before the iPhone came out? Nokia, BlackBerry – they all had a dense array of physical ...
Okay, let's talk about this.
To understand Starlink, you first need to understand Elon Musk himself. The ultimate goal of all his companies, as he himself has stated, is for humanity to become a "mult...
Okay, let's talk about this topic.
Imagine that before Elon Musk, the general approach to building rockets was basically "copying a template." NASA would say a rocket should look like this, use these ...
Alright, let's talk about this. This is quite an interesting question. The idea of rocket recovery has been around for a long time, but why has it only been realized recently? It's because the "three ...
Okay, let me give you an analogy that I guarantee you'll understand.
Imagine traditional aerospace companies are like top Michelin chefs. When they cook (build rockets), they use only the finest, pre-...
Okay, let's talk about this topic.
Imagine if you were Elon Musk over a decade ago, wanting to sell electric cars. You'd face a fundamental question: Why would anyone buy your car?
At the time, people...
Okay, let's talk about this.
To think about this using "first principles," we need to strip away all complex business models and historical baggage, and return to the most primitive, fundamental quest...
这个问题很有意思，其实核心就一句话：传统车厂是用“类比”思维，而特斯拉是用“第一性原理”思维。
我试着用大白话给你解释一下。
传统车厂的“类-比-思-维”
你想想，在特斯拉出来之前，传统车厂是怎么看电动车的？
他们会拿电动车和自己最熟悉的燃油车做“类比”：
“发动机”太贵了：他们一看，哦，电动车不用发动机，改用电池和电机。
The term "First Principles" sounds intimidating, but in plain terms, it's a "getting to the root cause" way of thinking. Its core is: ignoring what everyone else is doing and the "market price," and i...
Imagine you're suddenly thrown onto an unfamiliar desert island. All your previous plans, the map you brought (let's say a city map), are now useless.
Good question, not understanding this can drive one crazy with anxiety. Let's talk about how to use "First Principles" to see it clearly, without any fluff.
This is an interesting question, and it's not as mysterious as it sounds. Let's talk about it differently, without all the complex jargon.
For example, imagine you're a captain, leading your crew thro...
Let's put it this way, this is like "The Emperor's New Clothes."
Most entrepreneurs are actually making "better" clothes, for example, with more luxurious materials or newer styles.
Good question. If you think about this problem using "first principles," it's actually quite simple. It can help you strip away complex layers and see the essence.
Good question, let's talk about this. Don't overcomplicate it; first principles thinking means you act like a "devil's advocate" who knows nothing, digging into every question until you find the most ...
Sure, this topic is most interesting when discussed in plain language.
Let's simplify these terms:
Platform Company: Imagine a farmers' market.
Good question. Understanding this will make you much more accurate when evaluating many projects. Let's skip the jargon and talk plainly.
To judge something using first principles, imagine yourself as...